Failing Electoral Pull: PPP’s Declining Vote in the 2024 General Election

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – The United Development Party (PPP) is considered to be less than optimal in getting an electoral pull effect in the 2024 general election (Pemilu) after deciding to support the presidential and vice presidential candidate pair Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD.

According to the Executive Director of Trias Politika Strategis Agung Baskoro, if you look at the mass voter base, PPP should be able to achieve a coat tail effect in the 2024 elections after supporting Ganjar-Mahfud.

Because the PPP’s mass base is close to the cultural Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) members. Meanwhile, Mahfud is considered to be one of the symbols of the group.

“Institutionally, PPP has not been able to convey the coat tail effect when Ganjar-Mahfud entered the contest,” said Agung when contacted on Friday (16/2/2024).

Also read: Internal divisions are considered to be a factor in PPP’s declining vote in the 2024 legislative elections

In fact, according to Agung, if PPP can take advantage of this momentum by carrying out impactful political work, it is possible that they could increase their vote share compared to the 2019 election.

“At least if Ganjar is identified with PDI-P, then Mahfud can be directed to become a figure from PPP. So that the party machine will be more optimal in gaining votes,” said Agung.

Agung also mentioned that the absence of figures with strong political magnetism in the PPP was one of the factors causing the party bearing the Kaaba symbol to decline in the quick count results.

According to the Kompas Research and Development quick count on Friday (16/2/2024) at 17.34 WIB with incoming data of 99.15 percent, the party bearing the Kaaba symbol was at 3.88 percent.

Also read: PPP is stumbling in the 2024 legislative elections, allegedly due to not having a strong figure

If the PPP’s vote share does not move any further, then it is possible that they will be thrown out of parliament because they are unable to meet the parliamentary threshold which is set at 4 percent, in Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning General Elections (UU Election).

The PPP’s highest vote share after the Reformation event occurred in the 1999 elections. At that time they received 11.31 million votes or 10.72 percent of the total national valid votes.

However, the trend of PPP vote acquisition in several elections after 1999 has also decreased.

In the 2024 election, the PPP’s vote share fell to 9.24 million votes (8.12 percent).

Then in the 2009 elections, the PPP’s vote share fell again to 5.54 million votes (5.33 percent).

Also read: Not Yet Thinking About Accepting Prabowo’s Invitation to Cooperate, PPP: Be Patient First

Then in the 2014 election, the PPP’s vote share increased by winning 8.12 million votes or 6.53 percent.

However, in the 2019 election the PPP’s vote share fell again to 6.3 million votes or 4.53 percent.

If in the 2024 election the PPP’s vote share cannot reach 4 percent, then it will be history for the first time they were expelled from the House of Representatives (DPR).

PPP is one of the 3 oldest parties formed during the New Order regime which is still competing in the national political arena, apart from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Golkar Party.

Also read: The Kaaba Party’s Steep Road

PPP is the result of political party simplification policies in 1971 or the early days of President Soeharto’s government.

They were formed based on the fusion or merger of 4 parties with Islamic nuances, namely the Nahdlatul Ulama Party (NU), the Islamic Party Tarbiyah Islamiyah Association (PERTI), the Indonesian Islamic Syarikat Party (PSII), and the Indonesian Muslim Party (Parmusi).

The fusion policy aimed to simplify the political party system in the 1973 General Election.

The Kompas R&D quick count in the 2024 Election uses a stratified random sampling methodology with a margin of error below 1 percent.

Also read: Speech at PPP Event, Sandiaga: God willing, Deputy Minister of Religion Saiful Rahmat will be the next Governor of DKI

This quick count is funded independently by Kompas Daily.

These quick count results are not official results. The General Election Commission (KPU) will carry out vote recapitulation in stages from Thursday (15/2/2024) to Wednesday (20/3/2024).

Election results are determined no later than 3 days after receiving a notification letter or decision from the Constitutional Court (MK).

Get selected news updates and breaking news every day from Kompas.com. Let’s join the Telegram Group “Kompas.com News Update”, by clicking the link https://t.me/kompascomupdate, then join. You must install the Telegram application first on your cellphone.

2024-02-16 14:22:00


#PPP #Considered #Underutilizing #Coat #Tail #Effect #Election #Kompas.com