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Fact Check: Last year’s increase in mortality is unrelated to Covid-19 vaccination

As more and more explanatory information becomes publicly available, vaccination relievers continue their work. Especially at times when vaccination on a larger scale becomes relevant again, as now, when the population is asked to get vaccinated with the fourth dose. In a “Telegram” group of “alternative science” advocates, an image with mortality statistics for the past five years has become popular again. Although the author of the post does not claim that vaccines are to blame COVID-19, the questions posed next to the image seem to encourage readers to think that it is and that the virus itself is not harmful at all. The “Delphi” portal explains that this is another myth.

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This chart also gained popularity this week in the “Telegram” group against vaccination. Why repeat? This topic was already hot when these statistics were first published. The picture shows the mortality statistics for the past five years in Latvia. And it can be seen that last year it has grown considerably. However, in 2020, when the pandemic in Latvia started, the death rate is quite similar to previous years. The author of the post writes that these numbers explain the most important thing. And then questions are asked that suggest that the importance of the pandemic has been overstated and that vaccines are actually harming people. But this is not true.

The mortality data for the past five years are true. Centers for Disease Prevention and Control (SPKC) data shows that there was indeed a record number of deaths last year, five thousand more than in 2020. Last year, mortality was 25% more than in 2015-2019. on average per year. So this year the usual causes of death have been added, and it’s not vaccination.

In March 2020, the first case of Covid-19 was discovered in Latvia. And for the first six months, morbidity remained low, as did mortality. A total of 18 people died of Covid-19 from April to September. Subsequently, morbidity increased rapidly and a total of 700 people died in 2020, the cause of death of which was the novel coronavirus. Looking at the statistics on total mortality, we also see this: in 2020, total mortality was about a thousand times higher than the previous year.

Just as easily, the numbers show the steep rise in mortality last year, when a total of 4,344 people died from Covid-19. The total increase in mortality is about 5,000. It should also be taken into account that the pandemic has severely burdened the health system and that some people have not had the opportunity to see a doctor in time, which can also lead to a worsening of health conditions. Also, you can’t look at the statistics so simply: if the pandemic started in 2020, the highest mortality should be this year. However, Covid-19 tends to worsen health conditions without causing immediate death. For example, in the case of “Long-Covid”. Hence, the pandemic will likely appear in mortality statistics for years to come.

The post is not only misleading in fact. Even visually. The statistics are presented in a very particular way, choosing the number 27,000 as the starting point. Visually, this shortens the bars in the diagram considerably and gives the impression that last year’s death rate was at least three times higher than the previous year. This is a popular technique for manipulating data, as if it is not lying, but deceiving about the real situation.

Although this year’s mortality from Covid-19 is lower than last year, the virus is still considered dangerous. Therefore, the population is invited to receive the fourth dose of the vaccine. As of September, 1,249 people had died from the novel coronavirus.

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