10:22 p.m. on February 13, 2021, modified at 10:37 p.m. on February 13, 2021
For the moment, it holds… If one relies on national indicators, France remains in a fragile equilibrium without having brandished the ultimate weapon of reconfinement. Saturday, 26,196 people were hospitalized, a figure down for the fifth consecutive day according to Public Health France. The positivity rate also decreases, to 5.9%. However, the circulation of the virus remains very high, with 196 positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants on average. And if the variants navigate by submarine, the authorities track their impact all the more because the map of the incidence by department reveals a mosaic of contrasting situations – for some worrying, as in the Alpes-Maritimes, the Bouches-du -Rhône, Var, Jura, Tarn and of course Moselle.
In recent days, the department of Grand-Est has crystallized fears. The virus is rife there (292 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), in particular among young people aged 10 to 20, and the dreaded South African variant is progressing there with more than 100 cases identified per day. Elected officials have gone up to the front. The mayor (LR) of Metz, François Grosdidier, called for short and localized confinement as well as the closure of schools. Discussions are continuing, but yesterday the government did not take the plunge. The Minister of Health, who came to Moselle on Friday, announced two nudges: 2,000 doses of Moderna’s vaccine will be made available there “in the next few days” and the testing policy will be reinforced. Any positive Mosellan case will be considered as “suspect of a variant until proven guilty”. The key: contact tracing, immediate shelter, isolation for ten days with a negative PCR for sesame.
An unpredictable dynamic
From the neighboring department, Christian Rabaud, the president of the establishment commission of the CHRU of Nancy (Meurthe-et-Moselle), seeks the formula summarizing the situation: “It’s a bit of ‘funny war’, advance- Or like in a tsunami, when the wave retreats before it lands on us. ” Like epidemiologist Catherine Hill, this infectious disease professor admits to being helpless in the face of this paradoxical situation. Despite their progress, contaminations “in town” are not yet reflected in the hospital. The trajectory in Moselle has been “different” from the rest of Grand-Est “for the past two weeks”, also notes Benoît Gallix, director of the Strasbourg University Hospital Institute (Bas-Rhin) and scientific coordinator of the regional monitoring platform PredictEst.
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An unpredictable epidemic dynamic due to variants, progressive protection with the vaccine, less clear restriction measures… The projection models are slipping. If the South African variant, very present in the north and east of the Moselle, takes over, will hospitals be able to absorb the influx of patients? Another concern, pointed out by Christian Rabaud: “The AstraZeneca vaccine seems to respond less well to this variant. But Moderna, here, we no longer have. That of Pfizer, we only have second doses already reserved, we can only start new injections in eight to fifteen days. ” Scientists, skeptical of the presidential bet, still do not see coming the objective elements of an epidemic surge that they thought was inexorable. Until when?
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