14.3.2022 10:38, BAACEZ
Before the opening of the market, EZ will announce the financial results for 4Q 2021, resp. the whole year. A conference call with the company’s management will follow from 4 p.m.
| Estimates of management for 4Q 2021 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| billion K | 4Q 2021 | Market consensus * | 4Q 2020 |
and/and |
| Inputs | 55,9 | 57,7 | 58,2 | -4,0 % |
| EBITDA | 13,4 | 13,6 | 13,9 | -3,6 % |
| EBIT | 6,1 | 5,8 | -10,6 | – |
| is zisk |
4,6 | 4,5 | 4,1 | 12,2 % |
| Earnings per share (K) |
8,6 | – | 7,7 | 11,7 % |
* medin according to a survey by EZ
Note: net profit and earnings per share are mainly due to extraordinary non-cash effects, the inter-term level of EBIT is affected by provisions, including the reduction of goodwill (especially in relation to Romanian assets), in the amount of 18.4 billion. 2020
EZ should present a solid last quarter of last year. Not surprisingly, the production segment will play the same role, it will only increase the price of electricity, but the production of nuclear power plants should also contribute. In November, EZ told her that for the whole of 2021, the sales price of electricity will be close to 52 EUR / MWh. This is a year-on-year increase of about 14%, which, according to our estimates, will be added to EBITDA for 4Q 2021, including compensation for the negative effects of 1H 2021 resulting from collateral hedging commodity contracts of about 2 billion K. In addition, EZu evidently managed to produce from its nuclear power plants. The findings of the whole celloon had 30.7 GWh, which shows that production in 4Q 2021 rose by a very sunny dark 10% to 8.7 TWh. According to our predictions, this will bring a quarterly impulse to EBITDA of more than 0.8 billion K.
Strong dynamic and turbulent development on the market prices of electricity at the end of 2021, when spot contracts reached the level of 300 EUR, resp. In addition, EUR 400 has the potential to improve on the changed expected average realized price of EUR 52, resp. skt monosti for eventual profits from strading. We anticipate the total contribution resulting from the reduction of electricity and production from the core in the amount of about 2.8 billion CZK, so it may be a bit more expensive. In the change of favorable factors will be further dampened by higher prices, resp. The cost of emission allowances is expected to have a negative impact of between CZK 1.5 billion. coal, where we expect a slight decrease in operating performance by 0.2 billion K.
The distribution segment should maintain stability, resp. Estimated EBITDA in the amount of 4.6 billion. On this point of view, last year’s uprising improved its position, especially thanks to ESCO’s services, which were introduced last year by the covid muffler. The impulse should come mainly from Germany, the total contribution of the sales segment is equal to 0.1 0.2 billion K.
In 4Q 2021 it was not a bite of EZu Romanian and Bulgarian divisions, which were sold v1Q, respectively. 3Q 2021. The absence of Romania and Bulgaria means a decline in EBITDA of about 1.2 billion for 4Q 2021. This overall result, despite the positive impact of electricity prices and production, according to our estimate, shifts the total EBITDA profit for 4Q 2021 to the level of 13.4 billion K. This means a slight decrease in the previous 13.9 billion K.
On the other hand, we expect the same level of profitability to improve, mainly due to extraordinary income in the amount of 1.5 billion K. These are years of delayed receipt from the state in connection with two disputes concerning the donation tax of land allowances. The net profit for 4Q 2021 is predicted by 12.2% to 4.6 billion K.
Our estimated profits for 4Q 2021 indicate a full-year EBITDA, resp. net profit, only the management of EZ in November was specified in the range of 59 60 billion CZK, respectively. 19 21 billion K. In particular, for the whole of 2021 we see EBITDA at the level of 60.9 billion K (in 2020 it was 64.8 billion K) and a net profit of 21.5 billion K (the previous year was 22 .8 billion K).
Let’s see if the company’s management, in addition to the year 2021, also announced an annual dividend proposal. As usual, this is how EZ announces a dividend in April and May. We confirm our estimate of 43 K per share, when we expect EZ to pay the entire profit plus the proceeds from the sale of Bulgarian assets.
The traditional insight will be managed in 2022. The fact that the price of electricity prices has passed through the recent rapid growth, which should have a significant positive effect on EZ’s profitability since this year, will be a much-watched topic. Our current EBITDA forecast, resp. is a profitability of 72.3 billion K, respectively. 28.8 billion K.
Jan Raka, analyst, Fio banka, as
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