Researchers from the University of Bristol have shown that extreme temperatures combined with socio-economic vulnerability, put the quality of life of certain entire regions, such as Central America or Afghanistan, in serious danger.
Regions of the world that are not sufficiently prepared are the most exposed to the devastating effects of scorching temperatures, scientists warn. Researchers from the University of Bristol have shown that unprecedented extreme temperatures, combined with socio-economic vulnerability, are putting the quality of life of entire regions at serious risk. Afghanistan and Central America are among the most threatened regions.
The Beijing region and central Europe are also on the list of heatwave hotspots. According to the researchers, if record temperatures were recorded in these densely populated regions, millions of people would suffer the consequences.
Scientists Say Extreme Heat Can Happen Anywhere
Scientists have used climate data and models to determine the regions of the world where temperature records are most likely to be broken, the most threatened by extreme heat. They find that “statistically very unlikely extremes” occurred in 31% of the regions analyzed between 1959 and 2021.
The study does not give a precise idea of the areas in which abnormally high temperatures could occur. In other words, these extremes, where current records are broken by margins that previously seemed impossible until they happened, could happen anywhere.
“We’ve seen some of the world’s most unexpected heat waves lead to tens of thousands of heat-related deaths“says Dann Mitchell, co-author of the study and professor of atmospheric sciences at the Cabot Institute for the Environment at the University of Bristol.
The researchers also say that countries that have not yet experienced the most intense heat waves are particularly susceptible to damage. Adaptation measures are often only put in place after the most severe effects have been felt. Population growth, reduced access to health services and energy supply are also risk factors.
Where is the risk of extreme heat highest in the world?
L’Afghanistan,”one of the least developed countries in the world“, is particularly concerned. Although the region usually experiences hot summers, an abnormal weather event could cause temperatures to approach the limits of the human body. The projected high population growth also exacerbates the potential risks associated with rising temperatures.
In Central America, the study authors also focused on Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. The extreme heat in these countries could far exceed anything they have experienced so far. It will therefore be difficult for them to adapt to the maximum temperatures of tomorrow.
Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands are also on the verge of a record heat wave and the density of their populations puts them at risk. However, as developed countries, they are much more likely to have plans in place to mitigate risk.
Regions at risk need action plans for heat waves
The University of Bristol researchers are calling on policy makers in these at-risk regions to develop action plans to reduce the risk of death and other harm associated with climate extremes. “As heat waves become more frequent, we need to be better prepared“says the study’s lead author, climate scientist Dr. Vikki Thompson.
Hence the need to better identify areas where people may not be prepared to cope with climate extremes, in order to prioritize mitigation in these particularly vulnerable regions. With climate change increasing the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves, thousands of additional deaths could occur worldwide.
“We identify regions that have been lucky so far – some of these regions have a rapidly growing population, some are developing countries, some are already very hot“, adds Dr. Thompson, before inviting to wonder”whether the heat action plans for these regions are sufficient.“
2023-04-27 14:19:22
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