Fentanyl Data Under Scrutiny: Were Tariffs Against canada Based on misleading Figures?

The Trump administration’s use of fentanyl seizure data is under intense scrutiny, particularly concerning potential trade measures against Canada. The White House has cited U.S. Customs and Border Protection data, claiming a “massive 2,050 per cent increase” in fentanyl seizures at the northern border. This claim highlights a reported increase to 43 pounds last fiscal year, compared to just two pounds the year prior. Tho, an self-reliant inquiry reveals that a significant portion of this seized fentanyl can be traced back to Mexico, casting serious doubt on the administration’s justification for targeting Canada with tariffs.

Former U.S. President Donald trump repeatedly cited the 43-pound figure as justification for threats of imposing significant trade measures, including 25-per-cent tariffs on almost all Canadian goods. On a Thursday social-media post, Mr. Trump reiterated his stance, stating that drugs “are still pouring into our Country from Mexico and Canada at very high and unacceptable levels.”

In response to pressure from the White House, the Canadian government committed $1.3-billion to a border plan aimed at preventing fentanyl trafficking. This plan includes deploying Black Hawk helicopters and drones, as well as additional front-line personnel and canine teams.

Data Analysis Reveals Discrepancies

An analysis of the U.S. border agency’s figures aimed to verify if the 43-pound tally actually originated from Canada. The analysis found that the dataset does not reveal anything about the origin of the drugs.

U.S. border agents confirmed that the agency’s methodology for attributing seizures to the northern border doesn’t hinge on whether the fentanyl was intercepted at the border or whether it came from Canada. The fentanyl could have been seized hundreds of kilometers inland, and it may have no ties to Canada whatsoever.

Jason Givens, a spokesperson for the border agency, clarified that seizures made by its agents in what it considers the north, including as part of joint law-enforcement operations, are recorded as northern-border seizures, irrespective of origin.

the Spokane Sector: A Case Study

Nearly 24 pounds of the 2024 total cited by the White House came from one of the northern-border regions, known as the Spokane sector. This sector covers eastern Washington, Idaho, and western Montana. However, law-enforcement officials across the sector stated that they could not recall a single case of Canadian fentanyl flowing into their jurisdiction. All five of the current and former high-ranking officers said the problem is fentanyl from Mexican cartels,even in the northernmost parts of the western United States.

What I can tell you is that the majority of our sourcing of fentanyl comes from the southern border.
Commander Alan Brooks, of the northwest montana Drug Task Force

The dataset released publicly by the border agency contains basic details, such as the date of the seizure, the region, the sector or field office tied to the interception, the drug type and the weight seized.There is no details about criminal charges or the suspected origin of the drugs. It also is not stated whether the fentanyl was seized from a vehicle, commercial vessel, airplane, in the mail or elsewhere.

Through interviews and by cross-referencing the seizure data against court records, it was determined that nearly 15 pounds of fentanyl attributed to the northern border had, actually, originated in Mexico – but could only identify 5.5 pounds of the drug as having crossed the Canadian border.The investigation also confirmed that nearly five pounds attributed to the northern border in fiscal 2025 came from Mexico as well.

Applying the reporting exercise to the smaller seizures contained in the dataset proved a challenge.In moast instances,the border agency did not provide details about the specific cases associated with the seizures and couldn’t point to a Canadian connection.

Without confirmation that a particular interception is associated with a particular criminal case, it’s unfeasible to calculate how much of the fentanyl included in the northern-border dataset is actually from Canada.

Political Football?

One long-serving Canadian law-enforcement official suggested that the statistics are being manipulated by the Trump administration, and he questions Ottawa’s appeasement of the White House.

It’s become a political football. When you start mixing policing with politics,it could be troubling.
Pierre-yves Bourduas, a retired former deputy commissioner of the RCMP

Fentanyl from Mexico Labeled as ‘Northern Border’

Even though the origin of fentanyl attributed to the northern border can’t be verified by data from the U.S. border agency, an examination of court records revealed some seizures in the Spokane sector came from Mexico.

In one major case, authorities seized 14.8 pounds of fentanyl in Spokane, Wash. – more than 150 kilometres from the border with Canada – as part of an investigation last summer that lead to charges against three Mexican nationals. The investigation, which was led by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration,is outlined in documents filed in U.S. District Court in Spokane. This includes an affidavit sworn by a U.S. northern border patrol official who had been working with the DEA. The operation resulted in the seizure of approximately 68,000 pills presumed to be fentanyl, as well as firearms, large bundles of U.S.currency and several other drugs such as methamphetamine, cocaine and heroin.

Investigators amassed evidence that a car used by the alleged drug traffickers,which had California licence plates,travelled from Phoenix to Spokane in the weeks prior to the seizure,court records show.There is no mention of Canada in the criminal indictment against the three men, or the affidavit sworn by the border agent.

Another case attributed to the northern border, from last fall and classified as fiscal year 2025, also had no known connection to Canada. In that instance, nearly five pounds of fentanyl was intercepted in inland Washington. According to court documents in the continuing criminal complaint against the co-accused – Jose Antonio Guzman-Garcia and Eduardo Gonzalez-Rodriguez – authorities said they believe the fentanyl came from Mexico. The allegations have not been tested in court.

Drugs and firearms were seized at Mr. Gonzalez-Rodriguez’s home in Benton City, roughly 400 kilometres from the U.S. border with Canada, court records show. “Investigators in this matter have a good faith basis to believe that the source of the fentanyl possessed by the defendant to distribute is in Mexico,” U.S. prosecutors said in a motion seeking detention. The role that border agents played is not made clear in the court filings. Canada is not mentioned in the materials reviewed.

Canadian law Enforcement Weighs in

Canadian law-enforcement authorities, including the RCMP and the canada Border Services Agency, dispute the notion that fentanyl produced in Canada is a significant and increasing threat to the United States.

Canadian law-enforcement officials stressed they were not suggesting that fentanyl isn’t a problem for Canada – nearly 50,000 deaths since 2016 have been attributed to the toxic drug crisis in Canada – nor were they ignoring the reality that organized crime groups in the country have formed alliances with Mexican cartels and are mass-producing the opioid domestically. Some of the fentanyl has even been caught for export.

A 2023 Health Canada memo on the economics of the illicit North american drug market notes that domestic production in Canada has taken off since the flow of fentanyl from china was staunched under new Chinese regulations in 2019.

“Within the law enforcement community it is widely believed that the excess product is being exported to lucrative international markets,including,possibly,Australia,New zealand,the United States and Europe,” says the memo,which was released under access to information laws.

in 2022, Australian authorities intercepted a shipment from Canada at the Port of Melbourne containing more than 24 pounds of fentanyl. In reviewing some of the interceptions included in the 43-pound total cited by the White House, it was determined that 5.5 pounds of fentanyl seized in Detroit in June did, indeed, cross the Canadian border. And just a few weeks ago, Seattle border agents at a shipping facility opened a package that came from Canada and discovered more than one pound of fentanyl.

The Trump administration’s specific claim that the flow of the opioid across the northern border has risen massively in recent years doesn’t reflect what authorities are seeing on the ground. (The White House did not respond to requests for comment as of deadline.)

The Cartel Connection in Spokane

The pacific Northwest is a natural transit zone for fentanyl trafficking inside the United States. Law-enforcement sources described a route of fentanyl coming into the United States from Mexico at the southern border, and then flowing northbound through states such as California and Arizona. The fentanyl moving from Canada into the United States is a tiny fraction of the thousands of pounds of the illicit drug trafficked into American territory each year.Mr. Trump has said he intends to impose 25-per-cent tariffs on Mexican products as well.

Interstate 90 runs through spokane, connecting it to the port city of Seattle to the west, and to a lucrative drug market inland to the east. rob Boothe, a lieutenant with the Spokane Police Department who oversees the special investigations unit, concurred that Canadian fentanyl is not the problem in the Pacific Northwest.

the majority of our fentanyl has some type of cartel connection.
Lieutenant Rob Boothe,Spokane Police department

Residents in Spokane have good reason to be frustrated with the toll fentanyl has taken on their community. At least 346 people are believed to have died from drug overdoses in Spokane County in 2024, according to preliminary data from the medical examiner’s office; another 30 to 40 deaths are still being investigated. Of the deaths confirmed to be drug overdoses, fentanyl was detected in slightly more than three-quarters.

Conclusion

The Trump administration’s reliance on fentanyl seizure data to justify potential tariffs against Canada is facing increasing scrutiny. Evidence suggests that a significant portion of the seized fentanyl originated in Mexico, raising serious questions about the accuracy and validity of the administration’s claims regarding the Canadian border.

Fentanyl Crisis: Mexican Cartels Dominate Spokane Drug Trade, Former Dealer Says

Spokane, WA – The opioid crisis continues its relentless grip on the United States, with fentanyl at the forefront of this devastating epidemic. In Spokane,Washington,a former drug dealer is providing critical insights into the origins of this deadly drug. Kurt Garber, who once operated as a mid-level drug dealer in the city, now works as a supervisor at Compassionate Addiction Treatment. Garber claims Mexican cartels are the primary source of fentanyl in the Spokane region. His experience offers a ground-level viewpoint on the complex dynamics of the drug trade and the devastating impact of fentanyl on communities across the nation.

Kurt Garber, now employed at Compassionate Addiction Treatment Spokane’s sobering center, brings a unique perspective to the ongoing battle against drug addiction. Having been deeply entrenched in the local drug scene, Garber openly acknowledges his past involvement, admitting he sold fentanyl and other substances to support both his family and his own addiction. This experience,he asserts,provides him with firsthand knowledge of the key players and the intricate supply chains that fuel the fentanyl crisis in Spokane and beyond.

Firsthand Experience with mexican Cartels

In an interview conducted at the Spokane center, Garber stated that it was common knowledge among drug dealers that the fentanyl circulating in the area originated from Mexico. He emphatically dismissed any suggestion that the drugs might be crossing the border from Canada. Every plug I knew had a cartel plug, he said, using the street term for drug dealers, underscoring the direct connection between local dealers and Mexican cartels.

Garber’s involvement in the drug trade began in his mid-teens, initially with medications prescribed to family members for chronic illnesses. He later escalated to methamphetamine and heroin. The shift to fentanyl occurred in 2020, as heroin became increasingly scarce in the Pacific Northwest. Following a friend’s advice, Garber began purchasing pressed fentanyl tablets, locally known as “Mexi-blues,” from a Mexican supplier.this transition highlights the adaptability of drug dealers to changing market conditions and the increasing prevalence of fentanyl in the illicit drug supply.

The Mechanics of the Trade

According to Garber, every week or two, anonymous men, whom he believed to be Mexican, would drive to Spokane and stay in a local hotel. They would then meet him for the exchange, either near his apartment complex or at a nearby trap house. Interaction was limited, as the men only spoke Spanish, requiring the use of Google Translate on their phones. This detail illustrates the clandestine nature of the transactions and the efforts taken to maintain anonymity.

Initially, Garber paid $3,500 in cash for 1,000 tablets, reselling them for $5 apiece. As the supply of fentanyl increased and the price dropped, he purchased 10,000 tablets for $7,500, selling them for $3 each. He admitted to carrying a pistol for protection,concealed in his basketball shorts under his pants. This escalation in volume and the need for self-protection underscore the increasing danger and profitability associated with the fentanyl trade.

Arrest and Redemption

Garber’s involvement in the drug trade eventually led to his arrest. He was charged with possession with intent to deliver and unlawful possession of a firearm. In 2021, he was sentenced to one year in prison but was released after serving eight months. His arrest and subsequent incarceration represent a turning point in his life, leading him down a path of recovery and redemption.

Garber now views his prison sentence as a turning point, a blessing in disguise. He credits it with helping him overcome his addiction and recognize the harm he was causing by contributing to the drug crisis. I do feel really bad about it, he said. it wasn’t something I thoght of at the time. This newfound perspective fuels his work at Compassionate Addiction Treatment, where he now helps others escape the cycle of addiction.

National Impact and DEA Involvement

The fentanyl crisis has had a devastating impact across the United States. in 2023, an estimated 107,000 overdose deaths occurred, with nearly 75,000 involving fentanyl, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released last may. The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) seized more than 77 million fentanyl pills and nearly 12,000 pounds of fentanyl powder in 2023 alone.The DEA’s Rocky Mountain Field Division, which includes Montana, seized a record of more than 3.6 million fentanyl pills in 2023. These statistics highlight the scale of the crisis and the ongoing efforts to combat it.

The fentanyl trade is extremely profitable for the Mexican cartels who continue to flood the nation and the Rocky Mountain region with their poison. Fentanyl pills are manufactured in Mexico for as little as two cents per pill, yet can sell for upwards of $60 per pill in our jurisdiction.

Jonathan Pullen, special agent in charge of the DEA’s Rocky Mountain Field Division

The DEA’s 2020 national drug threat assessment explicitly stated that the Pacific Northwest was under siege by cartels pushing illicit fentanyl pills. The 2024 assessment reiterated the role of Mexican cartels, making no mention of Canada.This aligns with the perspective of a former DEA special agent in Washington, who stated that spokane has been a hub for trafficking illicit drugs eastward to Montana, the dakotas, and into Canada for decades. The former agent, who was not authorized to speak about past or continuing investigations, emphasized that Mexico is the primary concern, with the Sinaloa cartel being a major player in the fentanyl trade.

The Northern Border: A Secondary Concern?

While the northern border poses a risk, the former DEA agent suggested that law enforcement agencies are aware of the potential for Canadian fentanyl to become a larger problem if the flow from Mexico into the United States is disrupted.Increased pressure on the southern border could lead to alternative routes being attempted by various criminal networks. This highlights the dynamic nature of drug trafficking and the need for constant vigilance on all fronts.

Challenges in Combating Drug Trafficking

Law enforcement’s efforts to curb the flow of illicit drugs are complex by the fact that shipments can cross borders in small packages. A seizure in Detroit last June of 5.5 pounds of fentanyl crossing from Canada occurred at an international mail-sorting warehouse, discovered by a customs canine team. This incident underscores the challenges of detecting and intercepting small-scale shipments of fentanyl.

However, American and Canadian authorities disagree on Canada’s role in that particular trafficking incident. While U.S. border officials claim the fentanyl originated from Canada, the Royal Canadian Mounted police (RCMP) assert that Canada was merely a transit point. Whether it was actually produced in Canada, I don’t believe it was, said Staff Sergeant James Cooke, a senior official in the RCMP’s Federal Policing organized crime unit. This disagreement highlights the complexities of cross-border investigations and the challenges of determining the true origin of illicit drugs.

Nitazenes and International mail

Canadian crime gangs are also accused of using the mail system to export other illicit drugs, including nitazenes, a synthetic opioid even more deadly than fentanyl. The Australian Border Force reported intercepting 64 packages of nitazenes originating from Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, and Canada, primarily through the international mail stream. This underscores the global reach of drug trafficking networks and the increasing use of mail systems for illicit drug distribution.

the White House, in a statement threatening tariffs, cited a growing presence of Mexican cartels operating fentanyl and nitazene synthesis labs in Canada, pointing to international mail as a vulnerability. However, Canadian authorities dispute the claim that these drugs originate from Canada. Staff Sgt. Cooke stated that the RCMP has no intelligence indicating that crime gangs in Canada produce or synthesize nitazenes, noting that the primary producers of bulk nitazenes are in Asia. This disagreement further complicates the narrative surrounding the origins and trafficking routes of synthetic opioids.

canada’s Border Strategy

Concerns about Canada’s border metrics are not new. For years, congressional Republicans have cited northern-border seizure data as evidence of Canadian fentanyl flooding the country. in 2023, Vivek Ramaswamy, a former candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, used the same metrics to advocate for building a border wall with Canada. This highlights the political dimensions of the fentanyl crisis and the use of border security as a political talking point.

mr. Bourduas, the retired former deputy commissioner of the RCMP, believes Canadians should question Ottawa policy makers seeking to appease the White House. He is concerned about the implications of redeploying resources to the border,a strategy known as reprofiling,on ongoing organized-crime investigations within Canada. What do you loose? That’s a big question, he said. Reprofiling of resources within the RCMP is creating voids in other aspects of enforcement in our country. This raises concerns about the potential unintended consequences of focusing solely on border security at the expense of other law enforcement priorities.

Conclusion

The fentanyl crisis remains a complex and multifaceted issue, with Mexican cartels playing a significant role in the supply chain, particularly in areas like Spokane, Washington. While debates continue regarding the role of the northern border and the origins of synthetic opioids, the focus remains on disrupting the flow of these deadly substances and addressing the underlying issues of addiction and demand.The insights of individuals like Kurt Garber, who have firsthand experience with the drug trade, are invaluable in understanding the complexities of this crisis and developing effective strategies to combat it.

Experts Advocate Multifaceted Approach to Combat fentanyl Crisis

The escalating fentanyl crisis demands a comprehensive strategy that extends beyond solely focusing on border interdiction. Experts are calling for a multi-pronged approach that tackles international criminal organizations, strengthens international collaboration, and prioritizes addiction treatment and prevention. this holistic view aims to reduce both the supply and demand sides of the fentanyl epidemic, offering a more sustainable solution to a complex problem.

Beyond Border security: Addressing the Root Causes

While border security plays a role, experts emphasize that it is insufficient on its own to stem the flow of fentanyl. The core issue lies with the international criminal organizations responsible for producing and distributing the deadly substance. A more effective strategy involves targeting these organizations directly, disrupting their operations, and dismantling their networks.

According to Dr.sharma, focusing solely on border interdiction is insufficient to curb the flow of fentanyl. The real problem lies with the international criminal organizations producing it; border security needs to be one part of a broader strategy.

The Power of International Collaboration

Effective information-sharing and robust law enforcement cooperation across international borders are crucial in the fight against fentanyl. By working together, countries can share intelligence, coordinate investigations, and bring criminal organizations to justice. This collaborative approach is essential for disrupting the global fentanyl supply chain.

Dr. Sharma highlights the importance of working together,stating,International collaboration is critical. Combined efforts are key for effective information-sharing and stronger law enforcement cooperation.

Reducing Demand Through Treatment and Prevention

Addressing the demand side of the fentanyl crisis is equally important. Strengthening addiction treatment and prevention programs can significantly reduce the number of individuals who misuse fentanyl, thereby diminishing the market that fuels criminal activity. These programs not only help those struggling with addiction but also contribute to a safer and healthier society.

Experts believe that reducing drug demand is a key component of the solution. Strengthening addiction treatment and prevention is crucial to reduce drug demand, a factor that fuels criminal activity.This will tackle the issue of fentanyl misuse as well as help victims.

Looking Ahead: An Evidence-Based Approach

The fentanyl crisis requires an evidence-based approach, guided by data and informed by research. By continuously evaluating the effectiveness of different strategies and adapting policies accordingly, we can make progress in combating this deadly epidemic. Continued vigilance and open dialog are essential for finding lasting solutions.

Thank you for the opportunity. The fentanyl crisis demands a elegant,evidence-based approach. Let’s hope for a future where data guides policy and international cooperation dominates the response.I encourage everyone to continue following this issue and to share their thoughts and questions on this complex issue.

Dr. Sharma

The path forward requires a commitment to evidence-based strategies, international cooperation, and a focus on both supply and demand reduction. Only through a comprehensive and coordinated effort can we hope to turn the tide against the fentanyl crisis.