At the beginning of November, all restaurants in Germany closed with the start of the “Lockdown light”. Germany has been in a tough lockdown since mid-December: Most of the retail trade has been closed, hairdressers and cosmetic studios have been closed, and schooling has been severely restricted.
The big question is: What impact are the measures already showing?
Statisticians from the Ludwig Maximilians University (LMU) in Munich have updated the figures precisely – and are delivering bitter forecasts.
The preliminary result of Professors Göran Kauermann and Helmut Küchenhoff from the LMU Munich: NO statement can be made about the effectiveness of the December lockdown.
The statisticians had calculated in a previous survey that the infection rate had already slowed BEFORE the entry into force of the “Lockdown light”. In other words: Before the restaurants closed, the number of infections had dropped.
In the following statistics it is said that the number of new infections increased “up to December 8th”. They do not want to judge the development after this point in time “due to the incubation period and reporting delays”.
The sad news is: Even if the measures finally have an effect and thus the infections are pushed down, many of the people who have become infected with Corona in the past few weeks will not survive the disease.
The prognosis of the statisticians: Of all people who were reported as Corona cases in calendar week 51 (between December 14 and 20), over 6,500 will not survive.
The situation in the east is particularly bad
The researchers’ calculations show: The death rate has increased steadily in the past few weeks (mid-November to early December)! This is attributed to the massive increase in the number of cases in the group of people over 80 who are particularly affected by the virus.
The explosive: The researchers use statistical calculations to predict how many people who recently tested positive for Corona will not survive the disease.
Since the “time span between a positive test result and the fatal end of the disease” could be six weeks, the statisticians use the number of infections to predict that in Saxony “about 60 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants can be expected” – comparatively very high values.
The situation is also getting worse in Thuringia and Brandenburg. “Overall, the federal states of Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg show an approximately three times higher mortality rate at the end of the year than most of the other federal states,” the report says.
Hope in some federal states
In other federal states, according to statisticians, the fatal trend would NOT continue. The measures taken could already have an effect there, even if this would only become clear in the coming days.
Nevertheless, there is hope in Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Saarland. There, the calculated mortality of the corona sufferers reported in the past few weeks is the lowest.
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