If the planet’s climate warms by more than 1.5 ºC, the limit that scientists consider the safest, the consequences will be “inevitable” for humanity, even if the limit is reduced for a while, concluded a study published this Wednesday (9) in the scientific journal Nature.
The study, which was carried out by 30 scientists over three years, answers a growing question regarding the delay of countries in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions.
Given that the 1.5 °C limit established by the Paris Agreement seems to be sometimes in danger, we should not resign ourselves to seeing this limit exceeded for a while decades?
“No”, answered the scientists who signed the study firmly. Such a situation, they warned, could have “irreversible” effects, lasting thousands of years.
If the average temperature rises above 1.5 °C, “tipping points” would be reached, such as melting of permafrost and peat, two very large deposits of carbon which, if they disappeared, would release large amounts of greenhouse gases glass that, then, they would warm the planet.
If the 1.5°C limit is exceeded over a century, sea levels could also rise by another 40 centimeters, which would pose a threat to island nations, the authors warned.
“Even if we were to lower temperatures, the world we live in would no longer be the same as if we had not crossed the boundary,” explained Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, an researcher at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis based in Austria, who led the team of researchers.
According to the United Nations, the climate commitments made by countries will lead to global warming of almost 3ºC in 2100 in relation to the pre-industrial era.
Greenhouse gas emissions are approaching a peak, and countries have not yet begun to reduce them, despite the fact that they should almost halve by 2030 if they want to stay within the limit 1.5 °C.
But this goal would only be a step towards carbon neutrality in 2050, when natural carbon sinks and technology absorb as many greenhouse gases as those that have their spread by human activity.
With this delay, some scientists and politicians believe that it is inevitable that the 1.5 ºC limit will be exceeded.
The Paris Agreement, adopted by the international community in 2015, aims to keep global warming below 2°C – and, if possible, to limit it to +1.5°C – compared to the period before -business.
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2024-10-09 19:48:00
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