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▶ Reporter Jang Hyun-joo
Hello, this is Zipkonomi TV. Today, I will have Samtoshi, a real estate expert, to hear about future market prospects. Why did you write’there is a fixed timing to buy and sell a house for the next 5 years’?
▷Samtoshi
Currently, Seoul real estate is considered to be in the second half of the bull market. If the bull market is in the first half, I will not hesitate to buy it, but since it is the second half, I thought that attention would be needed depending on the situation, so the next five years was an important point, so I named the book like this.
▶ Reporter Jang Hyun-joo
Could you briefly summarize the real estate market last year
▷Samtoshi
Looking at real estate data in Seoul since 1986, there has been no increase for more than six consecutive years before. But now it is rising for the 7th consecutive year from 2014 to 2020. Originally, once increased, the number of licenses increased, and 5 or 6 years later, the number of occupants increased, preventing the increase. In fact, there were quite a lot of occupants in Seoul in 2019 and 2020, so we had to stop rising real estate in normal times. However, due to the 8.2 measures in 2017, the transfer tax for multi-homeowners was severely blocked, and the passage of sales was blocked, and sales were blocked due to the activation of registration as a housing rental business. In addition, it is evaluated as the year that provided the driving force for the longest-term increase as jeonse prices rose rapidly through the Lease 2 Act.
▶ Reporter Jang Hyun-joo
There are many criticisms that the house price in Seoul is so high that it is a bubble
▷Samtoshi
In fact, I believe that the real estate in Seoul is a bubble, but that’s right, but there is still a way to go to the peak of the bubble. The reason for that judgment is that there was a mid- to long-term decline in the past as the bubble reached its peak, but the reason for the decline was moving into a new city at that time. After moving into the first new town in 1991-1995, it went through a decline. Since then, the real estate market, which had risen for 11 years from 1999 to 2009, moved into Pangyo in 2008 and Gwanggyo New Town in 2011, resulting in a mid- to long-term decline in housing demand. Looking at this, the influence of the 3rd new town cannot be ignored. However, we do not think that the bubble has reached its peak because there is no factor that will lead Seoul real estate to a mid- to long-term downtrend since the 3rd new city will not move in within 5 years.
The second is the home purchase burden index. This index is released on a quarterly basis. Simply put, it is a measure of the burden of repaying loans when middle-income households in Area A buy middle-priced homes in Area A. The previous peak was in the second quarter of 2008, when the interest rate was 5%, and now it is 0.5%. Since the loan interest rate itself is immensely different, the burden of repaying the loan is much less. The third reason is the jeonse rate. The minimum rental price for apartments in Seoul was 38.1% in 2009, and if the gap between the sale price and the jeonse price is large, it is believed that there is a lot of bubble. It’s a bubble, but it’s not to the peak.
▶ Reporter Jang Hyun-joo
How to look at the real estate market variables this year
▷Samtoshi
In fact, many people are talking about the rise this year. I’m seeing that too. There are three reasons. Supply and demand liquidity. Demand is because I don’t look at the population or the household, the population is increasing, but the number of households is always increasing, so it is difficult to see it as a demand for forecasting house prices due to the increase in the number of households. However, if you look at a couple in the 10th and 11th years of Seoul, Gyeonggi Province, you can predict the house price. Seoul Gyeonggi 10th and 11th year As couples increase, the house price in Seoul rises. But this year, the number of married couples in the 10th and 11th years of Seoul Gyeonggi Province is increasing significantly. While there is demand side, there is upward pressure.
The supply will be cut in half to 50,000 units in 2020 and 26,000 units in 2021 when looking at the number of occupants. There is also an upward pressure on the supply side. Finally, it’s liquidity, which I see as M1 over M2. If this number is high, it means that the cash deposit amount is large, and that amount is the amount that can be put into the asset market. When apartments in Seoul have risen by more than 5% over the past 36 years, this number was more than 29%. It is now a record high of 35%. The amount of liquidity is large, and the ratio of cash to asset market input is also the highest ever.
However, one variable is the increase in taxation tax and transfer tax from June 1 of this year, and the key is how much multi-homed owners and high-priced home owners will vomit their sale before that time. Conversely, after June 1st, property lockup may occur again.
▶ Reporter Jang Hyun-joo
Why do you see a couple in the 10th to 11th year of Gyeonggi, Seoul?
▷Samtoshi
Seoul Gyeonggi-do’s 10th and 11th-year-old couples have declined since 2008. House prices in Seoul also peaked in 2009 and then decreased. Seoul Gyeonggi-do’s 10th and 11th-year-old couples increased again from 2014, and Seoul’s house prices have also turned upward since 2014. The couple in the 10th and 11th years of Seoul Gyeonggi Province saw a sharp decline in 2019, and at that time, they went through a house price adjustment period in the first half. It can be seen that it is going with the price of the house. When I pulled the correlation coefficient, the couples in the 10th and 11th years of Seoul and Gyeonggi are the ones that move more like Seoul house prices than any other class. Their increase and decrease will be very helpful in forecasting the future market, and because of the regulations that are fairly tightly enforced, Seoul is a market driven by real demand rather than investment demand. Seoul Gyeonggi couples in their 10th and 11th years can be seen as a representative end-user class since their first child enters elementary school.
There have been many objections about whether the influence of the couple in the 10th and 11th years of Seoul and Gyeonggi will decrease, but this trend has not yet been discovered. However, as the marriage rate has declined from 2014, the number of married couples in their 10th to 11th years will drop sharply from 2024. On the contrary, it can be seen that the impact of single-person households increases because they are not married, but single-person households are not considered to be the real demand class of a 34-pyeong apartment. Since this demand is distributed to officetels, we judged that the impact on Seoul apartments was not significant.
▶ Reporter Jang Hyun-joo
Can you give an example of how to specifically interpret the data and use it for real estate investment?
▷Samtoshi
The price of apartments in Seoul is seen as a factor to watch out for in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province. The amount of occupancy has a great influence on the charter price. There is an objection that the number of occupants is affected by the jeonse, and the number of occupants has been small since 2010, but the number of apartments in Seoul fell. However, it can be said that the jeonse price is greatly affected. At that time, the charter rose steeply. The fact that the M1/M2 index is also high is consistent with when apartment prices in Seoul rise a lot. However, since it is the current indicator, the future market outlook is difficult, but if it reaches a record high, it can be seen as an upward momentum.
The home purchase burden index also has an aspect of looking at households’ ability to afford to purchase homes. It is currently higher than the mid- to long-term average, but there is a difference to the peak. So, it is not the peak of the bubble. Lastly, I think that the jeonse price reflects the value of using the house. The sale price is expressed as the value used plus the value of the investment. If the gap between the jeonse price and the trading price is large, it means that the trading price bubble is growing. The jeonse rate can be judged by looking at past lows and highs, and the current situation. The current jeonse rate is between the lows and highs of the previous jeonse rate. In terms of the jeonse rate, I don’t think the bubble in Seoul’s real estate is still very severe.
▶ Reporter Jang Hyun-joo
Do you see it as the timing to buy a house this year? Some people think they should buy a house.
▷Samtoshi
I think it is a very ambiguous time. From the mid- to long-term outlook, the high point of apartments in Seoul is expected to be between 2023 and 2024. Given that the prospects are correct, you have two options. Even now, you can buy it and sell it in 2023-24 and pay a large transfer tax, because the retention period is short. Or waiting for the mid- to long-term low to come after this period. There is one and one side, but one thing is certain: the second half of the bull market is correct and needs to be careful. We expect a bullish market for the next three or four years, but it may not be a long period, so those who do not need to be greedy will not block their purchases, but we are refraining from recommending buying a home with a lot of burden because it is very difficult.
▶ Reporter Jang Hyun-joo
This was Zipkonomi TV. Thank you.
Planning Zipconomi TV
General Manager Sung-keun Cho, Director of Construction and Real Estate
Reporter Jang Hyun-joo
Filming PD Kim Doogyeom, PD Cho Minkyung
Editorial Cho Min-kyung PD
Produced by The Korea Economic Daily, Hankyung.com
Reporter Ayoung Yoon [email protected]
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