– It is a race against time, says Lieutenant Colonel Palle Ydstebø about the situation in Eastern Ukraine.
“Putin’s goal now is to take control of the entire Donbass, the provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk, which Russian-backed rebels have occupied since 2014,” he said.
– DONBASS: A man walks into the ruins of a school in Kramatorsk in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine on April 5. Photo: Fadel Senna / AFP
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On Tuesday, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg went out and warned that the Russians, after moving to the north, will probably launch a new offensive in the Donbass region in the coming weeks.
Ukrainian authorities have already warned residents of the region that they “risk their lives” if they do not evacuate immediately, and on Thursday the US military Pentagon stated that the war will probably last longer than anyone wanted.
– The fact that he will concentrate on smaller regions is a clear sign of the possibility that the violence will continue. It could even be intensified in that part of Ukraine, a Pentagon official said BBC.
Experts agree that an offensive in Donbass will now mark a new phase of the war.
– GRINDER ATTACK: A Ukrainian soldier walks past a building that has been hit by a large mortar shell in the village of Krymske in Luhansk in eastern Ukraine. Photo: Vadim Ghirda / AP / NTB
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Putin’s ambitions
The Donbass region of eastern Ukraine has been important to Russia for a number of years, and was the center of the uprising that ended with Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014.
Even before the war began on February 24, the Kremlin was clear on its ambitions for the region when, to its great condemnation, it recognized the provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent republics despite the fact that they fall under Ukraine’s sovereignty.
– REBELLION GROUP: A man from the self-proclaimed rebel group Donetsk Peoples Republic (DNR) in the city of Donetsk in September 2018. Photo: Alexander Ermochenko / Reuters / NTB
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– Donbass is more symbolically important than strategically important, says chief researcher Tor Bukkvoll at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment to TV 2.
– SYMBOLIC: Tor Bukkvoll, chief researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment (FFI), believes that it is first and foremost the symbolic value of Donbas that appeals to Putin. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB
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He explains that Putin used the region as an excuse for the war by claiming that Russian-speaking citizens were discriminated against by the Ukrainians, and that the Kremlin will probably use a possible victory in the Donbass to defend the war at home in Russia.
– It can be sold as a victory at home in Moscow, says Bukkvoll.
Lieutenant Colonel Ydstebø adds that the region’s industrial areas are important to Putin.
– The region is among the richest areas in Ukraine after heavy industrialization back to Soviet times. In addition, there were Russian-loyal rebel forces in the region that made it possible for Russia to annex Crimea in 2014, he explains, adding:
– The Russians have a grip on Ukraine’s independence and independence as long as they occupy parts of the country’s territory.
– Sources: ISW and the UK Department of Defense. Photo: Kjetil H. Dale / TV 2
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Time trial
A new Russian attack on Donbass is in the cards, and both sides in the conflict are preparing for a comprehensive offensive to take control of the industrial areas in the region.
The next few weeks can be critical for both sides if they want to retain control, says Ydstebø, who believes both parties are entering a race against time.
– It is a race for time and it depends on who is the fastest on reinforcements, build local superiority and take the initiative to create a decision, says the lieutenant colonel.
– TIME ISSUES: Lieutenant Colonel Palle Ydstebø is head of land at the war school. He believes the next few weeks will be decisive for who has the upper hand in the warfare in Donbass. Photo: Ingvild Gjerdsjø / TV 2
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Still, he believes that it is Ukraine that has the advantage so far.
– The longer Russia waits to build up its own strike force, the more time Ukraine will have to prepare for their arrival, build up its own forces and try to break up the Russian troop concentration, says Ydstebø and adds:
– Ukraine can have a time-limited advantage while Russian forces rebuild if they take the initiative and go on the counterattack first.
– LUHANSK: A Ukrainian soldier in Luhansk in the Donbas on March 2. Photo: Anatolii Stepanov / AFP / NTB
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New refugee flow
According to Ukrainian authorities, the Russian military aims to take control of the cities of Popasna and Rubizhne, in addition to establishing full control over Mariupol.
The port city has in recent weeks been the center of the Russians’ warfare and large parts of the city are in ruins after several Russian bombings. It is feared that very many civilians have lost their lives in Mariupol, and on Thursday the mayor himself went out and said that over 5,000 civilians have died in the city in recent weeks.
On Friday, Russia claims control of Mariupol.
Since the invasion began on February 24, more than 4.25 million Ukrainians have fled the country, while around 7.1 million people have been internally displaced, according to the UN High Commissioner (UNHCR).
– FLIGHT: A young Ukrainian girl cries as she says goodbye to her father at the train station in Kramatorsk in the Donbas region on April 3. Photo: Fadel Senna / AFP
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Experts believe intensified warfare in the Donbass will lead to a new influx of refugees from Ukraine.
– We can probably expect new refugee flows from Donbass, says Ydstebø.
– Civilians are trapped in the fighting, and housing and infrastructure are destroyed. Many have been driven to shelters or even fallen victim to crossfire.
Since February 25, the UDI has received 10,000 asylum applications from Ukrainian citizens. On Friday, the government allocated NOK 14.4 billion to a crisis package as a result of the Ukraine war, of which NOK 7.1 billion will go to increased funding in the UDI, the police and IMDi to handle increased asylum arrivals to Norway.
– SHELTER: People seek refuge at a metro station in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv on March 25.
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