“Experts Discuss Kiev’s Expectations and Risks in Ukraine’s Conflict with Russia”

Experts discuss these aspectsvery theoretical and therefore «unstable».

1) Kiev’s expectations are different from those of “donors”: Zelensky, in public, cannot set limits while Westerners believe that by force of circumstances Ukraine will have to aim for achievable results. Not out of distrust but for a simple assessment of the forces in the field. Melitopol has often been spoken of in the belief that Crimea is too “far away”.

2) Setting goals too high is risky, any result below can be «read» as a failure. It also happened for Putin: he marched towards Kiev and when the difficulties arose he withdrew to the Donbass. Indeed the most positive phase for his Army was that of containment, in defense of the occupied regions. There is a current of thought that does not conceal skepticism, believing that the resistance does not yet have the “numbers” to consolidate a possible breakthrough. This vision is balanced by the “wait and see” one: the Ukrainians will pierce the lines but what comes next is an unknown factor.

3) It is possible to measure a victory by territorial gains (for example the liberation of cities, villages, areas), because it is a tangible and visible conquest. But it is not said that then it will have a general impact.

4) We know only a few elements of the operationsthere is a “covered” and reserved part.

The analyzes of the “specialists” represent research, but they can also anticipate the judgment of governments. And in this crisis they weigh, because Kiev depends a lot on what comes from the West. A datum remembered by is enough War Zone: the US has supplied about 4 million ammunition for cannons, tanks, mortars. To these are added the rockets for the Himars and the “shots” for minor pieces, therefore the supplies of the Europeans which, however, continue to be late: during 2022 they produced “only” 300,000 artillery shells. To recover they have approved substantial packages currently held back by contrasts between governments and different ideas.

For months, Atlantic leaders have been repeating that Ukraine will decide its own destiny, nobody wants to impose anything. But we know that the coalition of supporters has not always shared Volodymyr Zelensky’s military choices (such as the decision to keep Bakhmut) and, at the same time, has set limits by refusing to send fighters and long-range missiles: a “no” motivated by fear of escalation with Russia. This line, together with America’s growing difficulty in justifying support for Kiev to public opinion, would deprive Ukraine of the resources for a real reconquest, according to some.