Experts are engaged in a heated debate over the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rates in light of resilient rebounds in the jobs report. The central question at hand is whether the Fed is moving too slowly to cut rates, potentially triggering a recession, or if they are on the right track by prioritizing the containment of inflation.
The chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, Mark Zandi, argues that the Fed should start lowering rates in March, or at the latest, May. With annual inflation drawing closer to the Fed’s 2% goal and some risks to the economy growing, Zandi believes that waiting too long poses a significant risk. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has expressed that a rate cut in March is highly unlikely.
The current Fed interest rate stands at a 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.5%, which was implemented to combat rising inflation. Lowering the benchmark rate would stimulate the economy by reducing borrowing costs for mortgages, credit cards, and other loans.
While some economists support Zandi’s call for rate cuts, others believe that the Fed’s cautious approach is justified. Barclays economist Mark Giannoni argues that inflation still poses a bigger threat and that the Fed should continue to be patient. He believes that they are on the right track.
Several reports since the Fed meeting have seemingly vindicated the Fed’s cautious approach. A core inflation measure, which excludes volatile food and energy items, increased by 0.4% in January, keeping the annual rise at 3.9%. Additionally, U.S. employers added 353,000 jobs last month, and average annual wage growth jumped to 4.5%. The economy grew at a sturdy rate of 3.3% in the last three months of 2023 and 2.5% for the entire year.
However, Zandi argues that the economy is not as robust as it appears. While job gains have been strong, the rate of hiring hit its lowest level since 2014 in November. Zandi believes that the risk of tipping the economy into a recession is now greater than the chances of nudging inflation higher.
Economists project economic growth to slow to 2.1% this year, with a 36% chance of a recession. According to Zandi, the Fed’s key rate should already be at 4% instead of 5.25% to 5.5%, based on a model that considers various economic indicators.
While some economists, like Giannoni, acknowledge that the risks of another price surge versus a recession are becoming more balanced, they still believe that inflation is the bigger worry. Prices of services such as healthcare, auto insurance, and dining out have continued to increase sharply.
In conclusion, the debate over the Fed’s approach to interest rates continues to divide experts. While some argue for rate cuts to prevent a potential recession, others believe that the Fed should prioritize containing inflation. The current state of the economy, with resilient rebounds in the jobs report and inflation drawing closer to the Fed’s goal, has added complexity to the decision-making process. Ultimately, the Fed must carefully consider the risks and make a decision that will best serve the long-term stability and growth of the economy.
