Stock market experts have become a little more cautious, according to the monthly Stock market survey by Corné van Zeijl of Actiam. They see a lot of sun this month for ASM International. According to them, industry colleague ASML should be left behind.
The optimism of the participants in the previous poll proved justified. June was a wonderful month. Not only did the economy largely reopen, the stock market also convincingly found its way up. The AEX index rose by almost 3%.
This means that investors can look back on an excellent first half of the year. The AEX has increased by 17%. If we add the dividend, there is even a plus of 18% on the plates.
One of the driving forces behind this good performance was the unexpected drop in interest rates in the US, despite Jerome Powell’s words that the Federal Reserve is going to talk about phasing out QE.
Expectations for July: a little more cautious
For July, the 57 participating experts have become slightly more cautious, although the number of optimists still exceeds the number of pessimists. The first group mainly points to the upcoming earnings season, which is expected to look great. The pessimists point to a possible interest rate hike.
The mood among stock market experts for July is as follows:
- 28.1% are optimistic (that was 33.8% last month)
- 49.1% is neutral (against 45.1% last month)
- 22.8% are pessimistic (from 21.1%)
- Balance: + 5.3%.
… but prognosis for the next six months is slightly more positive
For the next six months, the expectations are slightly brighter. More than 40% expect the AEX index to rise by more than 6%. That equates to a final score for 2021 of more than 770 points. 24.6% anticipate a decrease.
Here are the expectations for the next six months:
- 40.4% are optimistic (that was 38.0%) last month
- 35.1% is neutral (against 38.0% last month)
- 24.6% are pessimistic (that was 23.9%)
- Balance: 15.8%
Special question: Will European interest rates rise?
The special question this time was about interest rates in Europe. Van Zeijl was curious to see which way the experts would go.
These were the answer options. In the coming six months, European interest rates will:
- Rise fast. Economic growth and inflation are so high that these low percentages are no longer sustainable.
- A little rise.
- Stay about the same. Central banks and economic growth balance each other out.
- Go down again. The same factors such as moderate economic growth and/or a virus flare-up are coming back and so interest rates are falling.
The experts’ answer is clear: interest rates are going to rise, albeit fractionally. No less than 62% assume a limited interest rate increase. Only 2% (that is one person) expects a significant interest rate hike. 26% think interest rates will remain roughly the same. 9% expect interest rates to fall even further.
Stock picks June: Floppers well chosen, patience for Ahold rewarded
A regular part of the Actiam Stock Market Survey are the most and least favorite stocks of the stock market experts: the toppers and flops.
How did the participants in the previous poll fare? Not good, it turns out. The choice for Aegon (because of the lower interest rates in the US) turned out to be rather unfortunate: the price plummeted by more than 9%. Prosus also failed to live up to expectations.
Against expectations, Shell performed excellently in the floppers: the price bounced by more than 8%. Just Eat Takeaway also swam up against the current. Only the choice for Arcelor Mittal turned out to be correct.
On balance, the list of floppers ended slightly in the negative (-0.3%), while the floppers actually rebounded by 4.3%.
| Toppers June |
Yield |
Floppers June | Yield |
| Aegon | -9,3% | Just Eat Takeaway | +4,9% |
| Prosus | -2,9% | IMCD | +1,4% |
| Heineken | +4,7% | Arcelor Mittal | -3,9% |
| Ahold Delhaize | +6,1% | Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield | +2,5% |
| Royal Dutch Shell | +8,4% |
July choices: ASMI in, ASML out
Finally, the choices for July. According to the stock market experts, which stocks should we absolutely own and which should we avoid?
At the top of the shopping list is a striking name: ASM International. We don’t come across this name very often. Ahold Delhaize and Prosus will join the top riders for another round. Shell moves from the right to the left row. Philips completes the list of exhibition favorites.
While ASMI scores highly, the pros are less enthusiastic about industry peer ASML. According to them it is better to ignore this chipper. The same goes for Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield. The pros think that investors in this stock have been too ahead of the curve. Just Eat Takeaway and Adyen don’t get their hands on each other either.
| July toppers |
Balance* |
Floppers July | Balance* |
| ASM International | 4 | Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield | -5 |
| Ahold Delhaize | 4 | Just Eat Takeaway | -5 |
| Philips | 3 | Adyen | -4 |
| Prosus | 3 | ASML | -4 |
| Royal Dutch Shell | 3 |
* The balance represents the number of positive answers minus the number of negative answers.
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From Editorial of IEX consists of a team of content managers, journalists and analysts, with more than a hundred years of experience in producing and publishing investment information and opinions. The information in this column is not intended as professional investment advice, or as a recommendation to make certain investments. Editors may hold positions in one or more of the listed funds. click here for an overview of their investments.
