Experts Analyze Geolocation Footage and Ukrainian Counterattacks in Bakhmut Area

Experts point to geolocation footage released on May 9 and 10, which shows that the UAF military could conduct successful limited counterattacks north of Khromovo (immediately west of Bakhmut) and northwest of Belaya Gora (14km south of -west of Bakhmut) and made little progress in these areas.

According to Ukrainian sources on May 9, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed the enemy 6th and 8th companies of the 72nd motorized rifle brigade of the 3rd army corps of the Russian Federation near Bakhmut and advanced 2.6 km along the 3-kilometer front line in the area.

At the same time, ISW did not observe visual confirmation of these reports about the wider achievements of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, the material says.

A well-known Russian “military commissar” stated on May 10 that the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to advance further in the zone of responsibility of the 4th “LPR” motorized rifle brigade in the Bakhmut area after counterattacks by Ukrainian troops on May 9, and that Russian PMCs prevented the Ukrainian forces from breaking through.

The Russian Defense Ministry said that their Airborne Forces are holding back the actions of Ukrainian forces on the flanks around Bakhmut.

Previously, ISW experts assessed that reports of Ukrainian counterattacks throughout the Donetsk region appeared to be part of an ongoing pattern of localized and limited counterattacks, the report said.

Analysts believe that Russia’s widespread combat capability problems, exacerbated by continued debilitating attacks in the Bakhmut area, are likely to significantly limit the ability of invaders in the area to defend against local Ukrainian counterattacks.

Experts also noted that the 72nd separate motorized rifle brigade of the RF Armed Forces is in itself “a symbol of many endemic problems in the formation of forces that the Russian military constantly faces.”

The publication recalls that this 72nd Russian brigade, which was formed mainly from volunteers last August in the Orenburg region (RF) as part of the 3rd Army Corps, in the fall of 2022 was badly damaged in the Kharkov region during the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Ukrainian media suggested that the surviving units of the 72nd separate motorized rifle brigade could have been redeployed to the Mykolaiv region after the counteroffensive of the Kharkiv region, where they once suffered losses during the southern counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in October 2022.

The ISW admits that some units of the 72nd brigade of the Russian Federation were recently transferred to the Bakhmut area.

“The apparent involvement by the Russian military command of elements of the formation, which suffered two defeats in a row, in the Bakhmut direction, along with the already depleted Wagner elements, probably gives the Ukrainian forces the opportunity to use limited counterattacks,” the report says.

Key Findings

• Russian bloggers claimed that Russian troops allegedly attacked the command center where Ukrainian military leaders and officials were stationed, likely to support ongoing attempts to portray Russian operations as limiting Ukraine’s ability to launch a counteroffensive.
• The US Department of Defense has confirmed that Ukrainian forces successfully shot down a Russian missile using the Patriot missile defense system. The administration of US President Joe Biden also announced a new $1.2 billion military aid package for Ukraine.
• Russian troops launched ground strikes in the area of ​​Kupyansk and Kremennaya.
• Russian and Wagner forces continued their offensive operations in and around Bakhmut on May 10, despite an earlier threat from Wagner PMC founder Yevgeny Prigozhin that the mercenaries would leave the area at midnight.
• Russian troops continued limited offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk front.
• Russian forces launched airstrikes on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.
• Russian dictator Vladimir Putin signed an annual decree calling up citizens from the reserve for military training.
• The Russian occupation “authorities” continue to evict Ukrainian residents from their homes in the occupied territories under the guise of humanitarian “evacuation”.