“Expert warns of 64% risk of major earthquake in Istanbul, emphasizing need for earthquake-resistant housing”

A well-known Turkish seismologist calculated the risk of an earthquake with a magnitude greater than 7 on the Richter scale in Istanbul at 64 percent, Turkish private television CNN-Turk reports, quoted by BTA.

Prof. Naci Görür, who spoke at a seminar at Istanbul Sabancı University, reminded in this context of the need for activities to build earthquake-resistant residential areas.

“There is a reality that we have to accept. Turkey is an earthquake-prone country. An earthquake can happen at any time, in any place. We can lose thousands of people in just one night,” Görür said.

According to the expert, the probability of an earthquake of magnitude 7 or more in Istanbul by 2029 is calculated at 64 percent. This risk, he explained, is valid for the 30-year period since the region’s major earthquake in 1999, with a possible deviation of plus/minus 15 years. “This means that when we look at the best-case scenario, we may have until 2044,” Prof Görühr added. On August 17, 1999, a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in the Istanbul area killed at least 17,000 people.