We have summarized the trade scenarios that individual FX investors should input in advance when day trading “Dollar/JPY”.
Written by: Sohei Uehara, Gaitame.com Research Institute
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table of contents
Today’s dollar yen trade scenario
Environmental awareness through technical analysis
① Daily scale: 200-day moving average line is supporting… Looking at the dollar/yen price through technical analysis, after breaking through the upward 200-day moving average the previous day, it strengthened its rebound and rebounded to the 144 yen level. Currently, the price is touching the 10-day line, and if it appears to break above it, there is a possibility that the price will move towards the 145.00 yen level, which is a 38.2% reversal of the decline from the November high to the December low. However, be careful as it is possible that the price will fall back to the same level due to upward resistance.
USD/JPY daily chart
Trading policy: Looking for a buying opportunity towards 145 yen
②Forecasting market developments…The Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain the current monetary easing policy and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s press conference were moderate, so it appears that speculation about lifting negative interest rates early has receded. With price movements becoming less likely to occur in the second half of December, it seems likely that yen selling will intensify with an upside potential of 145 yen.
③Trade timing…We are now looking for a buying opportunity as the price moves towards 145 yen. However, if the price falls below 144 yen, there is a possibility that the selling bias will become stronger, so in that case, we will have to wait and see. Also, the area around 145.00 yen is considered to be upward resistance, so be careful of a pullback from around the same level.
USD/JPY 60-minute neo chart (Figure 1)
USD/JPY Foreign exchange order information (Figure 2)
Featured economic indicators/events
④Point explanation…With the Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain the current monetary easing policy, the yen is likely to weaken.
12/19 (Tue)
19:00 Eurozone November consumer price index, revised value
22:00 British Prime Minister Sunak testifying in Parliament
22:00 Lecture by BOE Vice President Breeden
22:30 Canadian November Consumer Price Index
22:30 U.S. housing starts in November
22:30 Number of construction permits in the US in November
23:30 Lecture by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Birkin
26:30 Lecture by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Bostic
30:00 US October Securities Investment
12/20 (water)
08:50 Japan November trade balance
*☆ is a particularly noteworthy material
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Regarding the results of economic indicators and events
The latest information on the results of major economic indicators and important events can be found on the “Economic Indicators Calendar” on the Gaitame.com site.
economic indicators calendar
Researcher, Research Department, Gaitame.com Research Institute
Shuhei Uehara
International Federation of Technical Analysts Certified Technical Analyst (CFTe) Joined the financial industry in 2015 and worked in customer support. She also works as a financial seminar instructor. In February 2022, she joined Gaitame.com Research Institute, Inc. Utilizing her past experience and knowledge, she actively disseminates information to individual FX investors. He appears on “Stock Voice,” a broadcasting station specializing in economic programs, and on Nippon Broadcasting System, “Shinbo Jiro Zoom: Will he say that much?” ”, and has made many appearances. He is currently writing a series on the outlook for the dollar yen and euro yen in the money magazine Diamond ZAi.
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2023-12-19 08:51:02
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