/ world today news/ Russian market participants are traditionally afraid of upheavals on the currency market in August, but unpleasant expectations do not always come true, commented the financial analyst of “BitRiver” Vladislav Antonov.
According to the expert, there are no reasons for a currency jump of the dollar against the ruble today. He also noted that the Bank of Russia estimated a record current account surplus in 2022 at $243 billion.
“There is no reason for the ruble to weaken by the beginning of September even by ten percent compared to the current exchange rate. Today, all is not well in the US economy and especially in the EU. Major leading indicators of the US economy point to an upcoming and most likely worst crisis since 2008,” said Antonov.
A negative impact on the national currency may be the return to the policy of a weak ruble and the strengthening of the thesis of the Ministry of Finance that to harmonize the budget, the equilibrium exchange rate of the dollar will be in the range of 70-80 rubles.
According to him, the probability that the ruble will strengthen to 50-55 rubles, taking into account budgetary tasks and geo-economic aggravation, does not exceed 20 percent until the beginning of November.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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