Several civilians were killed and parts of Ukraine’s electricity grid and water supply were knocked out by a massive rocket attack on Friday.
According to Ukrainian authorities, around 70 rockets were fired at the country.
On Saturday, Ukrainian authorities reported that water and electricity had returned to several places.
Friday’s attack is the largest missile attack against Kiev since the beginning of the war, and Russia’s goal is to destroy critical infrastructure.
Tom Røseth, dean of intelligence at the Norwegian Defense Academy, says Russia hopes the attacks will help the Ukrainians surrender.
INTELLIGENCE: Tom Røseth is dean in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense Academy. Photo: Kristin Gronning / TV 2
– They want the Ukrainian population to freeze and would like to make sure that they too are without water. This gives the Russians hope that it will weaken their desire for war, that they will surrender, cede territory that Russia has illegally annexed and bow to the higher power, she says.
– He wants a humanitarian crisis
As seen earlier during the war, Ukrainians – and the West as well – have become the opposite of what President Vladimir Putin wants: they have become more unifying.
Røseth and other experts believe this will happen again.
But so far we are only in the first winter month and there could be more attacks.
It was around 0 degrees in Kiev on Saturday, but it was very cold and temperatures are said to drop again.
BBC writes on Saturday evening that the Ukrainian defense ministry believes Russia is planning an offensive, possibly early in the new year.
– It will be a huge test for the Ukrainians if the Russians manage to limit the supply of electricity to the population over time, says Røseth.
“I think Russia wants a humanitarian crisis leading to refugee flows into and to the West, and hopes this will have an effect that changes Western support for Ukraine,” he continues.
DESTROYED: Ukrainian Natalia (67) sits in the living room of her home, which was destroyed by a Russian rocket attack. Photo: STRINGER/Reuters/NTB
X Factors
Russia has to launch a lot of missiles if any of them want to hit the target, because Ukraine has gradually gotten a lot of flak shooting them down.
Røseth says Russia has a large stockpile of missiles, but it could eventually run out.
– Firing waves of 80 missiles overwhelms the Ukrainian air defense and will eventually deplete Russian stocks. It is therefore unlikely that Russia will be able to maintain this pace for much longer, Røseth believes.
According to New York Times Russia has been producing 40 missiles a month since the war broke out. The figures have not been officially confirmed.
Since production is not that big, Russia therefore has to scale back on big attacks.
– But there is an X factor here, Røseth points out.
“They must therefore give higher priority to such attacks in the future, and they won’t be able to have the same terrorist regime they have now, unless they get missiles from Iran,” he says.
Iran has supplied Russia with drones. It is not excluded that they will also supply missiles to Russia.
Røseth says it is therefore important for the West to provide Ukraine with air defense to prevent a humanitarian crisis and refugee flows.
PUTIN’S PLAN: President Vladimir Putin wants a humanitarian disaster in Ukraine, experts believe. Photo: Vladimir Voronin / AP / NTB
It can have the opposite effect
The American think tank The Institute for the Study of War believes that the reason Russia carries out one attack after another is to create further discontent in Ukrainian society.
– Russian attacks continue to pose a significant threat to Ukrainian civilians, but do not improve the ability of Russian forces to conduct offensive operations in Ukraine, the think tank writes in a relationship.
Friday’s shelling was the largest against Kiev since the war began on Feb. 24, according to the think tank.
But even as they carry out one attack after another, the think tank points out, like Røseth, that it is unlikely to destroy the Ukrainians’ will to keep fighting the Russians.
Perhaps quite the opposite, thinks Hugo von Essen.
He is an analyst at the Swedish Institute for Foreign Policy.
ATTACK: A woman weeps outside a building hit by a Russian rocket on Friday December 16th. Photo: Evgeniy Maloletka / AP / NTB
– Ukrainians feel that there is a war against their existence and their future. This makes them more motivated to defend their right to live and exist, says von Essen The Espresso.
Rocket strikes could also have another effect opposite to what Putin wants.
– Another effect it can have is that the West is more forced to respond adequately to this by supporting Ukraine more militarily. It backfires on Russia, he says.
DESTRUCTION: EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell calls the attacks ‘barbaric’. Photo: STRINGER/Reuters/NTB
Expert: This is good
The analyst says the Ukrainians appear to be in control of the situation, even though they have recently suffered a series of attacks.
– The Russians mostly can’t do anything but knock out the infrastructure, but they seem to manage that too. Attacks hit them, but they don’t even go all the way under, and that’s good for them. They seem to have the situation under control, and for Ukraine it seems that eventually they can conquer more territory, the expert tells Expressen.
It is not known how many Ukrainians were killed in connection with Friday’s wave of rocket attacks, but there are talks of several.
Since the beginning of October, Russia has fired more than 1,000 Iranian-made rockets and missiles at Ukraine, writes BBC.
International leaders call the attacks war crimes.
