TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Political expert from Paramadina University, Ahmad Khoirul Umam, assessed the discourse grand coalitionwhich combines the Greater Indonesia Coalition (KIR) and the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB) to face the 2024 presidential election, is difficult to materialize.
Large coalitions can be formed if representatives of political parties within them can negotiate interests and form agreements that bind together.
“The grand coalition must be able to determine its political platform, whether it is continuity or change? Who will be the presidential candidate? Who will be the vice presidential candidate? What will be the composition of the cabinet or government portfolio in the future? How will the political logistics procurement and expenditure scheme be? And so on,” he said, Tuesday , April 4, 2023.
According to Khoirul, the parties that are members of KIR and KIB, namely the Gerindra Party, the National Awakening Party (PKB), the Golkar Party, the National Mandate Party (PAN), and the United Development Party (PPP) already have the same mission, namely continuity. However, they will face problems in determining who will become the presidential and vice presidential candidates.
“The proof is that PKB’s position statement has appeared, which emphasizes that the Grand Coalition will be realized if Cak Imin (PKB General Chairperson Muhaimin Iskandar) becomes the presidential candidate,” he said.
In fact, according to Khoirul’s analysis, the idea of a grand coalition put forward by President Joko Widodo or Jokowi by electing the General Chair of the Gerindra Party Prabowo Subianto as presidential candidate. “It’s possible statement The PKB is to increase Cak Imin’s bargaining power to become vice presidential candidate in the Great Coalition,” he said.
On the other hand, said Khoirul, if one looks at the intensity of the Gerindra elite’s maneuvers, it can be seen that they are inclined to choose Khofifah Indarparawansa as Prabowo’s running mate, not Muhaimin.
Three Big Carriage Determining Candidates for Vice President in the Great Coalition
Khoirul said that in the formation of a grand coalition there were at least three carriages fighting for the position of cawapres in the 2024 presidential election.
First, the Golkar Party, which at the Golkar National Conference has appointed its general chairman, Airlangga Hartarto, as a presidential candidate, is unlikely to give an RI 1 seat ticket to a candidate who does not necessarily win. “If it is not compensated with the vice presidential position,” he said.
The two Muhaimin Iskandars have wanted to become vice presidential candidates since 2018 and even carried the tagline “Nowaday vice presidential candidates”. For this reason, PKB moved quickly to approach Gerindra to form the Greater Indonesia Coalition so that Muhaimin’s chances of becoming vice presidential candidate were higher. “But if it enters into a grand coalition, the possibility will decrease again,” he said.
The third carriage is BUMN Minister Erick Thohir which is likely to be offered by PAN. If this happens, Erick will have two Islamic political forces, namely PAN as a representative of Muhammadiyah and his status as a Nahdlatul Ulama cadre.
“In the context of the Grand Coalition, Erick seems to be using PAN as a bargaining position to get the vice presidential candidate position. So, the clashes are strong and negotiations will be difficult to reach,” said Khoirul.
PPP Shifts to PDIP
According to Khoirul, it is not impossible that PPP will shift to the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP). The reason is that PPP has to pay a debt of gratitude after being rescued in the 2019 elections, while PDIP needs reinforcement from Islamic elements in its coalition carriage.
“Given the magnitude of the potential for conflict of interests and the difficulty of negotiation between parties, it is very likely that the government parties will experience diaspora and division,” he said.
If PDIP unites with PPP, then Gerindra and PAN as in the 2014 presidential election, and Golkar and PKB, all of them meet the Presidential Threshold requirements. “All of these schemes can meet the Presidential Threshold of 20 percent,” he said.
PDIP Joins the Great Coalition for a Bigger Chance of Winning
Khoirul said the formation of the Grand Coalition was rather difficult to materialize unless PDIP willing to submit and lower his self-esteem by handing over his “Golden Ticket” to the current of the Great Coalition.
Khoirul assessed that if PDIP joins, then middle-class parties will have second thoughts about forming new lifeboats in the form of an Alternative Coalition towards the upcoming 2024 Presidential Election.
“If PDIP wants to be dictated to hand over its Golden Ticket to nominate presidential candidate Prabowo, then the cheering parties can be “controlled” and “disciplined” to follow the agenda of setting interests going forward,” he said.
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