Expert: Russia could attack Finland – 2024-03-04 20:18:45

Russia could test the unity of NATO by attacking Finnish Lapland. An illustration of the Hammer 2023 war exercise organized in Niinisalo. Pete Anikari

Military analyst at the Royal Danish Defense Academy Anders Puck Nielsen speculated again on a possible Russian attack on Finland. He has raised the matter in a recent interview with the Danish Jyllands-Posten.

In an interview with the newspaper, Puck Nielsen estimated that, from a geographical point of view, the northern part of Finland would be the most suitable area for Russia to test the strength of the defense alliance NATO.

– It’s just an example, but I’m referring to Northern Finland, because from Russia’s point of view it could be the place where the escalation would be most controllable, he estimated.

According to Puck Nielsen, NATO’s unity would be put to the test in Finnish Lapland. He implies that NATO could sacrifice an almost uninhabited area to avoid World War III.

– Would the NATO countries be willing to take the risk of the third world war in order to take back a few hundred square kilometers of relatively deserted land in Lapland? He asks.

Finland alone in the war?

Puck Nielsen explains that Russia sees NATO as weak and its interests are to weaken NATO even more. He reminds that the strength of the entire alliance is based specifically on common defense and the fifth article.

According to Puck Nielsen’s assessment, Russia might take some kind of “limited offensive action in a deserted area”. According to him, Russia believes that NATO will practically disintegrate, if in such a case it does not send its troops and equipment to the area in question.

– Basically, NATO only works if all member countries are willing to go all the way, even if it’s just one centimeter, he says.

– If we are not ready to take the risk of a nuclear war for the sake of a few hundred square kilometers in Lapland, it is a serious challenge for NATO.

Everyone’s eyes would be focused on one country in particular, if Finland or another smaller country were to be attacked. It’s about the United States, of course.

– Perhaps it could even lead to the disintegration of the alliance, if a country like Finland suddenly found itself alone in the war. Especially if the United States did not rise against (the attack), he says.

Puck Nielsen reminds us that Russia is not aiming for a new world war, but rather the opposite. Instead, Russia’s goal is to convince the larger NATO countries that in a situation like the one mentioned above, they should not strike, so that the world avoids a major war.

When one “musketeer” abandons the principle of defending others, the security situation in Europe turns upside down.

– At the point when Russia no longer faces a united NATO, each individual country faces a completely new reality, he says.

Comrade questions

Puck Nielsen has previously commented on Russia’s possible attack intentions on Finland. Iltalehti reported about a month ago about the analysis published by Puck Nielsen on his Youtube channel, in which Finland was mentioned as Russia’s “perfect” target.

The former intelligence chief of the General Staff, MP Pekka Toveri (kok) commented on the matter to Iltalehti at the time. According to him, the target more vulnerable to a possible Russian attack than northern Finland is in the Baltics. It would also be suitable ground for propaganda, unlike Lapland.

– Russia can take over the area and state that they are only protecting the Russian population from genocide. So what do you say in Lapland? “We came here to protect Finnish reindeer”? There aren’t terribly many Russians living in the direction of Lapland, Toveri says.

Comrade considers it unlikely that NATO countries would fail to respond to even a minor attack on the territory of a member state. He does not believe that there would be a dispute within NATO about the implementation of the fifth article, even if the Russian strike was limited.

– If Russian troops come across the border, it is a military attack. This is precisely why Russia carries out cyberattacks, that they lack clear evidence. Then, when the Russian tank is on the wrong side of the border, the display is quite clear.