Published: August 18, 2023 10:33 am
Premiere for the Panel that will give us potential tips and moves for the weekend’s round of ironing tips for several weeks to come. We will get to follow the thoughts and analyzes of the panel members Bengan, Burre, Hyltan, Smizze and the Analyst. This weekend Bengan will also be visited by Burre and Hyltan during game Saturday. Hold on to your hat and see what ideas the guys have this week!
“The millionaire who refused to stop winning!”
/ Bengt “Bengan” Sonnert
🔨 Nail of the week: Ipswich
Last week’s feature in the podcast was my dear QPR. The Hoops managed to win away to Cardiff, but it was clearly a bit of luck. Gareth Ainsworth is still heavily questioned as manager, but has not received much support from the transfer fund. The squad looks very thin and it will be a tough season unless a handful of players come in before the window closes. A flying Ipswich comes to visit.
The newcomers have two straight wins and are tipped to come high in the table. I think it will unfortunately take a lot for the R’s to score and start from second. Since the Swedish people love QPR, there may be some value in Ipswich and that makes the move even smarter.
🔍 Feature of the week: Spurs
In the Stryktipspodden, Watford was my pick, but here in the panel I choose Spurs. For several years I have been a bit negative towards the team, but in retrospect I was still right (of course). Despite sick hype before last season, European places were missed and Tottenham landed in eighth place. Now, on the contrary, it seems that hopes are low after Kane left for Bayern.
However, I think the team looks quite interesting. With new-age Bissouma as cleaning man and Maddison in from Leicester, I think the Whites have a chance to do better this year. Man United managed to win against Wolves but it was almost frighteningly bad in terms of play. What surprised me the most was that both Ten Hag and Varane were neutral in the interviews afterwards and seemed to feel that this was the level the team was at right now.
Worrying for sure and I like to chance nailing one on Saturday. Of course, you shouldn’t take too much of the opener, but I have a feeling that Spurs will make a good effort and hopefully it will be a three-pointer.
“The gold digger from Jönköping!”
/ Viktor “Hyltan” Hylten
🔨 Weekend Nail: Ipswich
The tractor boys show no respect as a newcomer but shovel everything in their path initially and this Saturday I think we will see more of the same. QPR with the charismatic Gareth Ainsworth at the helm did indeed take all three points home from Wales, but it was with a real tremor on the bar (literally speaking) and when a hungry Ipswich is on the other side, the risk is very high that the blue and white stripes will once again get take the loss seat.
The visitors from Suffolk have already shown that they will challenge for a playoff place and the chances are good that players like Chaplin and Hirst will see a fragile QPR defence.
🔍 Weekend Draw: Hull
Hull are coming off a convincing 4–2 win against Sheffield Wednesday where Ozan Tufan led the way with a hat-trick. Saturday’s opponents Blackburn had it tougher, Jon Dahl Tomasson’s men trailing 2-0 after 50 minutes against relegation-threatened Rotherham and were only saved by the hosts’ forward Onyedinma picking up two yellow cards in the space of two minutes.
2-2 was the final score after double goals by Sammie Szmodics, but the performance left a lot to be desired and the game still looks choppy under the Dane. If the “Tigers” get up to par and manage to handle the mentioned Szmodics, they should have a good chance of upsetting an otherwise awkward Blackburn at Ewood Park and X2 is a must on the ticket!
“The cabin’s only winner on the Europa tip for 1.6 million kroner!”
/ Lucas ”Burre” Burns
🔨 Weekend Nail: Brentford
The opening round offered a lot of fine football and it feels absolutely unbelievable that the 23/24 season has started. This weekend we are treated to a nice coupon and with some slightly bigger favorites I think it might be good to find a move in the form of a nail. Fulham somehow managed to bring 3 points home to London despite Everton having an incredible number of chances to take the lead.
The same old regular from the previous season. Brentford had a good season last year and the match against Spurs indicated that “The Bees” are as well drilled by Thomas Frank as usual. The game plan was clear and a bit of a shame that they conceded a goal at the end of the first half. Very positive for Brentford and very lucky for Fulham.
I think it’s time to nail Brentford who I rate higher than an overrated Fulham at what I suspect will be a nice nice percentage.
🔍 Weekend Draw: Birmingham
Nice start for both of these teams and in the two opening games they each have a win and a draw each. Bristol City manage to leave The Den with three pins and Birmingham beat relegated Leeds at home. Both also managed to progress in the cup without any major problems and it feels like there is a good atmosphere in both camps.
Now it is like this that Bristol City are usually fun to hold in the hand when they are underdogs, but when they stand as favorites and will probably be crossed out, I choose to go against and run x2 in favor of Tom Brady’s reborn Birmingham.
“Love Varberg & Stoke above all else!”
/ Otto ”Smizze” Smith
🔨 Spike of the week: Ipswich
The weekend’s coupon offers a very nice range, a slightly bigger favorite (Liverpool), in addition to that there are some favourites. Of these I find McKenna’s Ipswich to be the best at the moment.
Championship newcomers Ipswich have started the season in the best possible way, with two wins in two games. At the latest last weekend Stoke were completely cleaned up, 2-0 was shown on the board but could have just as well been 3-0/4-0 given all the chances they created.
QPR, on the other hand, had a tough time last time despite winning the match 1-2 away to Cardiff, but dropped to 3.01 in xG, among other things. This week, QPR also had a cup match, however, the entire eleven was rotated so nothing that affects the weekend.
At the time of writing, Ipswich stands at 39% and has odds of 1.96. This will probably change and the percentage will go up a bit, but if it lands around 45%, I see this as a very nice spike.
🔍 Draw of the week: Spurs
This week’s “draw” is the old man (1 2) in Tottenham v Man Utd. I also think Tottenham can be a potential nail. Postecoglou plays a much more attacking football, stands higher with the backline, gets up and creates more scoring chances than before. Something they didn’t do as well with Conte last season. The risk is, however, that Tottenham will be slightly overstretched and therefore want to include the 2nd, and that we know how strong Man Utd is in their counter-attacking game.
Why I’d rather have United (2) than the cross (X) is because I think we can see at least 3 goals in this match and the more goals, the lower the probability of a draw. Therefore, I choose to remove the cross in this match.
“Passionate about statistics and analyses!”
/ Kristoffer “The Analyst” Björnström
🔨 Nail of the weekend: Brighton
Brighton are clear favorites away at the Molineux Ground in a match with a 2.75 line, which means that the market believes in many goals and then the risk of X should decrease somewhat. Looking at Brighton’s opening game, they scored 4 goals at 4.37 xG, where Mitoma was behind a lot of the plays that became dangerous situations and also goals or penalties.
Even Estupiñán contributed to much of what was created going forward. Manager Roberto De Zerbi has had a year to get the game together in Brighton and it looks really good from the opening game. Against this stands a Wolves who, a bit stressed, put together many weak finishes away against Manchester United. Those finishes added up to a combined xG of 1.72 but resulted in nothing more than a VAR situation ruled in the opposition’s favor and they went goalless from their season opener.
I believe in the favorite Brighton and am happy to nail them if they don’t get too crossed.
🔍 This weekend’s features: Newcastle
Newcastle showed last week at home at St James’ Park that they are a top team in the Premier League this year, winning fairly against Aston Villa 5-1 in terms of expected goals. This week there is an away match against Manchester City itself on the schedule and they are clear underdogs on the odds.
City will of course only win if you look at the odds but with Kevin De Bruyne injured I see City as an uninteresting nail and make this my move where I glance at X2 Newcastle. City’s strength lies both in individual top class and breadth of the squad. De Bruyne usually gets to play 90 minutes every game so there should be some interruption to the injury even if the width reduces the importance of this. Great width is more important at the end of the season when all teams are drawn with many injuries.
Newcastle only have injuries to Willock and Krafth but it’s nothing to disturb and with the effort we saw last week I think Newcastle can surprise positively here.
My move is to run X2 if it gets crossed on the home favorite, otherwise I guard up with a full guard and work in the banger two.
//Panels
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2023-08-18 15:06:14
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