Sangadzhieva grew up in Kalmykya in southwestern Russia and now works as a senior adviser to the Helsinki Committee, which works for human rights. She believes it is now beginning to crack around the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin.
– He feels cheated by his own and now many of these have been arrested. And that is a natural development. When a dictatorship shows weakness, people start attacking each other. And none of those around him are safe.
– RUSSIA EXPERT: Inna Sangadzhieva in the Helsinki Committee. Photo: Frode Sunde / TV 2
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At the same time, Sangadzhieva says that she interprets how the Russian head of state acts in propaganda and how he speaks, meaning that he has not lost faith in himself.
– He is now angry, angry and very aggressive. But outwardly, he wants to show himself as at that meeting at Luzhniki Stadium, as a strong and popular leader.
She is referring to Putin last official appearance, where he showed up at a football stadium and spoke to the crowd that had turned up. Sangadzhieva says those present are people who are “forced” to show up.
– Everything is fake. Those who attend such meetings are forced to do so. They get money and are afraid of losing their jobs if they do not come.
Also read: Rumors are swirling about Putin: – He is sitting in a bunker
– Putin was misinformed
The Russia expert says the war in Ukraine is not Russia going to war against Ukraine, but against the West and the United States. She herself did not think there was such a good chance that Russia would actually invade Ukraine. She thinks a lot of it is really about information wars, and about intimidation.
– In a way, it is important to understand that the only goal Putin has is to retain power.
She further points out that the FSB (the Federal Security Service in Russia) gave Putin the wrong impression of how easy and successful the invasion of Ukraine would be.
– According to the grave journalists Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan, the FSB made a big mistake when they told him that Ukraine is divided, that Zelensky is weak, that this would only be a small mini-version of the Crimean annexation and that «we will just take a little, and everyone comes with flowers and is happy ». He was misinformed.
She believes Putin was taken to bed by Ukraine fighting so hard back. When asked what she thinks will happen for Putin to stop the war, she is in doubt.
– It is difficult to say, but I think that the sanctions that have been initiated surprised him. And also the misinformation he received about the situation in Ukraine before the invasion. It has shocked him. I think Putin has already lost this war. It’s just a matter of time.
She points to three possible scenarios:
1. That Putin actually uses nuclear weapons. It could be against Ukraine, and some have talked about neighboring countries. Then you have to prepare as best you can for it, but I do not think it will happen.
2. That someone around him, the elites, is actually doing something. There is talk of an elite coup and that someone will take power. But here it very much depends on whether loyal people have any degree of common sense.
3. That Russia’s economy is stagnating more and more, due to the sanctions. That one waits for the people of Russia to become so poor and rent that they do something.
– At the end of the fall of the empire
Sangadzhieva has no doubt that Russia is heading in a new direction.
– We are at the very end of the fall of the empire. The Russian Empire began to crack 30 years ago, but Putin has tried to keep it together, but with these wars it all collapses.
– What happens after that?
– Then there must be a new Russia. This transition is, of course, difficult. There is little hope that Russia will become a democracy immediately, but I remember from the 90s how fast it goes. I think civil society will be important here.
– Society has already made a transition proposal, and Putin knows that. He knows there is an alternative to him. Either way, it will be a different start. I think society is so modernized.
Limited contact with the circuit
Professor at the Department of Defense Studies, Jardar Østbø, says Putin has changed in the last decade.
The Putin we knew before, who was pragmatic and open to listening to information and advice from various quarters, is a thing of the past. And in the last ten years, he has appeared more as ideologically controlled or at least legitimized.
– SEES CHANGE: Jardar Østbø, Associate Professor Department of Defense Studies. Photo: Frode Sunde / TV 2
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Østbø says that there has also been a change in the last two years, especially during the pandemic.
– He limited his contact with his circle, so it was narrowed down to revolve around security people and the military. While daily politics were delegated to the technocrats. Putin has then concentrated on the big, strategic decisions and it has then affected who he has surrounded himself with and who he has listened to.
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