Three hundred days after Russia invaded Ukraine, Putin makes a rare statement acknowledging that all is not going smoothly with the war in Ukraine.
– The situation in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions is extremely difficult, Vladimir Putin said in a video seen by Reuters.
According to the agency, the video was meant to be for security personnel in the areas.
Putin has never said that Russia and Ukraine are at war. He says Russia is conducting a “special operation” in Ukraine.
The four areas he mentioned are all in Ukraine, and was annexed by Russia in September.
– A message to the population
The fighting has not stopped for this reason and the situation in the annexed areas is tough.
It’s not often that the president admits when things are not going well with the war in Ukraine.
Why is it now clear to Putin that not everything is going smoothly?
There could be several reasons for this, believes Tom Røseth, dean of intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College.
– There is a message here for the population in those areas, that the situation is difficult. I think that’s a clarification of expectations. He is preparing the Russian population that there may be Ukrainian counterattacks that they will not be able to stop.
It could also be to defend the austerity measures Putin has announced, according to Røseth.
On the same day that Putin spoke about the situation in the occupied territories, he also asked the Russian security service FSB to increase surveillance of Russia’s borders and population, in order to “fight” the emergence of new threats both at home that abroad.
Regardless of what Putin says or doesn’t say, Røseth believes that Ukrainian forces may succeed in retaking parts of the occupied areas.
– It depends on where they plan a counteroffensive, he explains.
In the fall, Ukraine announced an offensive which resulted in the recapture of the important city of Kherson in early November. It has been called Putin’s biggest defeat of the war.
The new counter-offensive will probably come to Zaporizhia, Røseth believes.
– Probably tops the list for Ukrainians.
The battle for Bakhmut
At the same time, fierce fighting is taking place in Bakhmut, which is located in the Donetsk region. The fighting there has been going on for several months.
Photos and videos of the city show a war-torn city with buildings that have been torn apart by bombing and soldiers in trenches.
– There are parallels with positional warfare in the First World War. It’s a rather primitive warfare, at the same time they use drones and satellite data, explains Røseth.
Volodymyr Zelensky visited the war-torn city on Tuesday. It is not known how he traveled there. While there he talked to the soldiers.
– The East resists because Bakhmut fights, he told the troops.
He shook hands with the soldiers and praised them for their courage and efforts in the war.
– Bakhmut Fortress. Our people. Invited by the enemy, who with his courage has shown that we will persevere and will not give up what is ours, he wrote on Telegram about the visit.
Believe in the counteroffensive
If Bakhmut were to fall in Russia, their chances of being able to push further into other major Ukrainian cities would increase.
– The city is symbolically important, also because the fighting lasted so long there. If Russia manages to take it, it is a sign that it can advance to Donetsk and head towards Kramatorsk and Slovjansk.
However, he is confident that Ukrainian forces will do everything to prevent this from happening.
– There is no prospect of the Ukrainians giving up. I think the Ukrainians are betting on keeping the front row, and then racking up a few more punches in the back that they can use.
In the coming months, Røseth expects Ukraine to launch a counter-offensive.
– For now, it’s static along the frontline now before the telethon offers an opportunity for offensive operations.
