The debate about arms support to Ukraine continues unabated. Now Britain and Poland have confirmed they plan to send heavier, modern tanks to Ukraine, putting pressure on major powers such as the US, Germany and France, which have so far provided armored personnel carriers and lighter tanks.
On Wednesday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba emphasized in a conversation with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg how important it is for Ukraine to receive heavier, Western tanks. Stoltenberg replied that timing is critical, and determined that Nato has to assist with more advanced weapons more quickly.
– Absolutely crucial
– Tanks are absolutely essential for breaking through the defense lines and recapturing the terrain that Russia has taken during the war. The alternative is to attack frontally over the fields with infantry, but then you will be exposed to fire from the enemy and will suffer enormous losses. So these armored vehicles, especially the tanks with the best protection and the biggest guns, are absolutely essential.
This is what lieutenant colonel and head teacher Geir Hågen Karlsen at the Norwegian Defense Academy tells Dagbladet.
– Western countries have been reticent when it comes to deliveries of heavy and important weapons systems to Ukraine. But now we are getting started, and it seems that Poland and Great Britain will open by giving smaller quantities, but this will hopefully mean that other countries will follow suit, says Karlsen and adds:
– Ukraine needs hundreds of tanks and lots of other armored vehicles. If they now get this in place relatively quickly, they can hope to take back occupied areas.
«Change strategy?»
Recently, General and former Chief of Defense Sverre Diesen asked the following questions in a chronicle in Dagens Næringsliv: “Should the West change its strategy in Ukraine?”. With this, Diesen discusses the possibility that the West can go from preventing Russia from winning the war in Ukraine to ensuring that Russia loses the war in Ukraine.
The reason why Diesen is now discussing this is that the premise for the West’s current strategy, namely that Putin will negotiate if the situation becomes difficult enough, does not seem to hold.
Such a change in strategy must be reflected in increased weapons support.
“The price for securing Western, strategic interests in the long term is thus to live with the risk such a strategy entails in the short term. The development in the conflict may nevertheless indicate that the time for that has come,” concludes Diesen.
Winter offensive
In the past, it has been said that Ukraine may be planning a winter offensive, but this has, however, failed to materialise.
– I believe that the Ukrainians place great emphasis on not giving any indication of where they want to launch their offensives. Deception is absolutely essential, and an offensive must come offensive must come by surprise in a place where Russia is less prepared. But it will be more difficult now as the Ukrainians have succeeded in deception in the past, which means that the Russians may be more aware of it now, says lieutenant colonel and head teacher Karlsen and continues:
– But it is always the case that you will try to give the impression that you are going to attack somewhere in order to mislead the enemy, before you then attack fully with large forces concentrated in a completely different place. I don’t think we will see hints of such an offensive until it is underway.
Karlsen concludes:
– But it is important to get equipment to Ukraine now, that is. The faster the better. They need more tanks, in addition to the fact that air defense is absolutely essential to protect Ukrainian cities from terrorist bombing.
