Expert Analysis: Understanding and Defending Against Potential Enemy Attacks on Kharkov and Odessa

The military expert explained the enemy’s intentions and explained how to counteract him.

The situation in eastern Ukraine continues to be difficult. The enemy’s activity at the front gives rise to many rumors. A possible enemy attack on Kharkov is being actively discussed on social networks. Allegedly, the Russians concentrated their forces for a possible attack on the city.

Constant air strikes carried out by the enemy on Kharkov add to the panic. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky even recommended that residents who moved to safer regions don’t go back to town yet.

Also, the enemy is increasingly hinting for a possible attack on Odessaand meanwhile attacks the city with missiles and drones, killing Odessa residents and small children.

The TSN.ua website found out whether there is a threat of an attack on Kharkov, how appropriate are the rumors about the possibility of breaking through the defenses and the attack of the invaders on Odessa and Kyiv.

Is an attack on Kharkov possible?

Military expert Igor Romanenko recalls the Konrad Adenauer Foundation security forum, which was held in December 2021 in Kharkov.

“I was a participant in this security forum. Then, unfortunately, the authorities in every possible way denied the possibility of an offensive by the Russians. At the forum, I noted the high probability of an invasion. All available data pointed to the final stage of preparation for an offensive by enemy troops. Moreover, then I emphasized that the enemy group, which stands on the border, is aimed specifically at Kharkov. All my predictions were confirmed. In 2022, we managed to repel Russian troops who were marching on Kharkov. And after that there was a counter-offensive and they managed to push the enemy away from the city,” he tells the TSN.ua website. Igor Romanenkomilitary expert, retired lieutenant general, deputy chief of the General Staff (2006-2010).

The expert notes that now the situation around Kharkov is worsening, the enemy is concentrating its forces there.

“The Russians are using their reserves in the form of weapons and manpower in the Kupyansky direction and near the border, but so far these actions have not been successful. As for the air attacks on Kharkov, here, I think, the reason lies in the painful psychology of Putin himself. He cannot forgive Kharkov for its desperate resistance and rejection of everything Russian. This is outright revenge. Therefore, they are striking the city and will continue to do so in the future. But this does not mean that the occupiers can launch a large-scale offensive tomorrow,” notes Igor Romanenko.

The threat remains, but there is not enough strength

He adds that to attack Kharkov, the Russians need additional forces, and they not yet collected in sufficient quantities.

“There is certainly a threat of an attack on Kharkov. The occupiers did not change their plans to capture the city. They want this, just as they want to repeat the offensive, for example, on Kyiv. But there is a big difference between desires and real possibilities. Fighting is now taking place in the east and south along almost the entire front line, and this requires significant forces. The Russians are spending it thanks to the desperate actions of our defenders. Therefore, I believe that the enemy, even at the operational level, not to mention the strategic, will not be able to gather forces now to attack Kharkov“, assures Igor Romanenko.

Is there a threat to Odessa?

As for a possible attack on Odessa, the military expert notes that this city is number 2 for the invaders after Kharkov.

“For Putin, Odessa, like Kharkov, are sacred goals. There have already been attempts by the Russians to carry out a landing operation on Odessa, but these plans were broken. Large landing ships of the Black Sea Fleet every now and then go to the seabed. Therefore, everything here is also very far from the desires of Russians and reality. But the enemy does not give up the idea of capturing the city. I can do it they don’t have that option yet“, adds Igor Romanenko.

Countering and avoiding old mistakes

A military expert notes that it is possible to stop the enemy’s advance only by active oppositionand also avoid making repeated mistakes and learn from the actions of the enemy.

“There is a lot of talk now about the “leak” of information about our counter-offensive last year. Sorry, but everyone knew about him, even schoolchildren. All sorts of experts talked about this, discussing in detail where and when this should happen and what is strategically important for us. Even our Western military partners “helped” by telling in detail in the media about the state of our brigades – numbers, weapons, etc. The enemy heard and saw all this very well. Why this was done is a mystery,” emphasizes Igor Romanenko.

He is convinced that through these conversations we have given the Russians enough time to reliably prepare for a strategic defense.

“While we were laughing at the Russian “dragon’s teeth” and talking in the media about all the details of the counter-offensive, The Russians were actively digging in, concreted their dugouts, dug anti-tank ditches, and mined the approaches to them. How did it all end? Our counteroffensive did not take place. The Russians held out and completed their task. And we were able to do the maximum – to pass only their first line of defense. So now we need to hold the linebecause after Avdievka the enemy began to move west,” adds the military expert.

What and how to stop the enemy?

Igor Romanenko assures us that from the advance of the enemy we Only reliable defensive lines will savewhich need to be formed quickly enough.

“We need to build or complete the construction of defense structures. And not only the military, but also all civilian structures should be involved in this. This was repeatedly discussed at the Headquarters meeting. The first line of defense should be transferred to the military, and all resources should be directed to building a second line of defense in key areasand it needs to be built to its full height, that is, made very strong, impassable for the enemy,” says Igor Romanenko.

The military expert emphasizes that this is why the Armed Forces of Ukraine need to attract people who cannot fight for various reasons – religious, family, physical, but these people will be able to dig and concrete trenches.

“To us labor resources are needed for the construction of defense structures. We must do this quickly – dig, concrete, improve. People must finally understand that there is a large-scale war going on and there is a constitutional duty that everyone must fulfill. Powerful defense lines are needed in the Kharkov region, Odessa region, Sumy region, Chernihiv region and other regions. Because in the event of a retreat of our troops, soldiers must occupy precisely such reliable lines of defenseand not dig trenches under constant enemy fire,” notes Igor Romanenko.

You’ll have to do a lot of digging

According to the expert, it will help to replenish the resource 100% military registration of men from 18 to 65 years old, as well as registration of women liable for military service. And this does not mean that these people will immediately be thrown into battle. Like, in war you don’t always have to shoot, but also do a lot of physical work.

He recalls the words of his grandfather, who served as a soldier-driver in World War II.

“Grandfather said that the most difficult thing in war is not a tank offensive or air strikes, but the hardest thing is digging a trench under enemy fire. And they dug trenches for all five years. They dug so much that it was possible to build a subway in many cities. And they dug them not only for themselves, but also for their equipment, because if you lose your equipment, you will be sent to a penal battalion. Now the relevance of digging and digging trenches has not changed. Our defenders are forced to dig them under constant shelling in order to hold the defense. The state should assist in every possible way in the construction of reliable defense structures and transfer them for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” the expert concludes.

Previously, the TSN.ua website told how and with what they would defend Kyiv in the event of a second offensive.