On March 5, 2023, the Two Sessions of the Communist Party of China were held. It was foggy, and police stood guard at the southern end of Tiananmen Square. (GREG BAKER / AFP)
[The Epoch Times, December 18, 2023](Epoch Times reporters Ning Haizhong and Luo Ya interviewed and reported) 2023 is about to pass. Under the black box rule of the CCP, the situation in China has been undercurrent this year. What kind of “black swan” will fly out of China in 2024? Expert analysis believes that there will be problems in at least four major areas.
Black swan theory refers to an event that is extremely unlikely to occur but actually occurs. People are accustomed to deduce this in advance, and there are many media topics every year.
Four major areas may see “black swans” in 2024
Su Ziyun, director of the Strategy and Resources Institute of the Taiwan National Defense Security Research Institute, accepted an exclusive interview with The Epoch Times on December 17. He analyzed the possible black swan events in the CCP next year from multiple fields.
The first is the worsening of economic problems, forming a vicious cycle. Because of the current bad reputation of Xi Jinping and his small circle, the economies of China and the United States and other countries are gradually decoupled. Although the CCP says it will not decouple, its actions, including the Counterespionage Act, have caused foreign capital to withdraw from mainland China, soared domestic unemployment, and created structural difficulties. The CCP’s pension and real estate issues will become a chain. Explosive point.
The second is geographical conflict. In 2023, the deterioration of relations between the CCP and the United States and Europe will become increasingly public, the Indo-Pacific geopolitical conflict will continue, and the CCP will be surrounded by so-called “foreign hostile forces.”
Su Ziyun, Director of the Institute of Defense Strategy and Resources, Taiwan National Defense Security Research Institute (Wu Minzhou/The Epoch Times)
Su Ziyun said that although Beijing wants to improve relations with Australia and improve economic exchanges, these are just superficial. In essence, Australia still adheres to AUKUS (Australia, Britain and the United States Trilateral Security Partnership); Japan is more aware of the CCP’s geostrategy Expansion will eventually affect the security of Japan’s maritime lifeline. South Korea, Japan and the United States will stand closer next year; the situation of the CCP and the Philippines continues to deteriorate, and has even reached the tipping point of war. These are all caused by the CCP’s military expansionism.
He said that the Philippines now also wants to form a joint patrol force from multiple countries to curb the CCP’s military behavior in the South China Sea. “The entire geopolitics has turned into a Great Wall on the sea to surround the CCP. The CCP is shooting itself in the foot. This is the geopolitical black swan that Beijing may face next year.”
Third, Su Ziyun believes that there may also be black swans in the CCP’s internal strife. This year, two cabinet ministers (Qin Gang and Li Shangfu) were dismissed, and the defense minister has not yet been replaced. Whether he will be replaced at the same time during the two sessions in March next year is an indicator. But to make up for it, Xi Jinping will have to face a choice: should he use people from his own small circle, or people who are not directly related to Xi Jinping?
Su Ziyun said that Xi Jinping has a high degree of insecurity, and it is reasonable to estimate that he will still insist on using people from his own small circle to fill this minister. But this will cause different internal factions to fall into another kind of dissatisfaction. “This minister has been vacant for so long and cannot be replaced, which reflects that there is indeed a big problem within him.”
He also said that both Li Shangfu and Qin Gang were personally arranged by Xi Jinping during the 20th National Congress. Other factions may have waited for them to take office before exposing the scandal and turning them into high-level gangsters. This is a means of political power struggle. Similar things will happen in the future. “I think it will be inevitable for Xi Jinping to face internal revelations next year.”
Fourth, the epidemic in China may also evolve into a black swan.
Although the Chinese Communist Party officially covered up the outbreak of the new coronavirus (Chinese Communist Party virus), online information showed that China was still at the peak of medical treatment and hospitals were overcrowded, but the official did not emphasize the name of the new coronavirus.
Su Ziyun said that China’s more than one “black swan” should certainly include the epidemic, because mainland China has always been vague about the emergence of new infectious diseases, saying that they are existing viruses, no new virus infections, etc., but this may be a combination of outbreak of the disease. Due to the lack of transparency of the CCP regime, there has been a long-standing situation of deceiving the superiors and concealing the truth from the subordinates, reporting good news but not bad news, which can cause huge disasters under certain circumstances.
“The entire Chinese Communist Party government is basically dysfunctional. Everything can only be suppressed with force. This situation will explode one after another after accumulation.”
He also said that if these infectious diseases cannot be controlled next year, it will aggravate the problems in the previously mentioned areas and cause social and political instability. “The root of everything comes from the fact that a totalitarian country has become a one-man dictatorship, and all kinds of diseases have emerged.”
Xi Jinping needs to take full responsibility for the “black swan” and his health may worsen as the situation worsens
Su Ziyun said that if a black swan incident occurs in China, it will be caused by Xi Jinping in the first place. “He is the biggest driver of destroying China’s modernization and must bear full responsibility.”
He said that there has been a lot of discussion about Xi Jinping’s health. Although it is impossible to predict whether he will have an accident in 2024, the systemic problems of the CCP are increasing Xi Jinping’s work burden, and his incompetence and decision-making errors have caused economic regression. , these black swans and gray rhinos were caused by him. If he really can’t deal with it, it will have a negative effect on his health.
Su Ziyun believes that the various crises the CCP is currently facing are interrelated. Due to the instability on foreign security issues and the downturn in the domestic economy, the CCP’s Two Sessions next year may have to invest more budget in maintaining stability and strengthening the ability to monitor the people. In this case, online public opinion will be further tightened. The more authoritarian a regime becomes, the greater the threat it will pose to the outside world, including the use of the Internet. The CCP’s threat to other countries will become more and more obvious, but the result will also be an exacerbation of the economic decoupling between countries and the CCP.
Su Ziyun finally added that no matter how many black swans China will eventually fly next year, the most important thing is to hope that the people of the mainland can understand that the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is not about the strength of ships and guns. The rejuvenation of the Chinese nation should allow the Chinese people to avoid The freedom of fear will not be eliminated by the CCP. This kind of democratic freedom is the most important foundation for the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
Editor in charge: Li Renhe#
2023-12-18 12:11:50
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