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Expectations of a slowdown in global oil demand growth next yearOPEC estimates for 2024 are more optimistic than the Energy Agency and the Energy Information AdministrationEstimations of a slowdown in oil supply growth from outside OPEC in 2024The Energy Agency cuts oil demand estimates for the first time in 2023High oil stocks in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in May
The International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration and OPEC agreed on a slowdown in oil demand growth during 2024, but with a clear difference in the pace of increase on an annual basis, according to the Energy Research Unit’s analysis of the vision of the 3 major institutions.
The newly issued monthly reports of the 3 major institutions for the month of July 2023 also showed the growth of non-OPEC oil supply in the coming year, as major producers outside the OPEC + alliance seek to face the cuts planned by the alliance, but at a slower pace than the current year’s estimates ( 2023).
For 2023, the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for oil demand growth for the first time this year, while the Energy Information Administration and OPEC boosted their estimates, with more-than-expected growth shown by China’s consumption over the past few months, according to the Energy Research Unit.
Oil demand forecasts in 2024
expect International Energy Agency An increase in the total global demand for oil in 2024 to 103.2 million barrels per day, with China accounting for 16.8 million of this total, up from 16.2 million in 2023.
And the Energy Agency raised its expectations for the growth of oil consumption globally during the next year by about 300 thousand barrels per day, so that it is likely that demand will increase by 1.15 million barrels per day, to reach a total of 103.2 million.
This means a slowdown in oil demand growth compared to the expected pace for the current year, even after it was revised downward by 220,000 barrels per day, to reach 2.2 million barrels per day, due to economic headwinds, as indicated by the Energy Agency in its monthly report.
As for the US Energy Information Administration, it has reduced its estimates for oil demand growth in 2024, to 1.64 million barrels per day, compared to previous estimates of 1.70 million barrels per day, which pushes the total to 102.80 million barrels per day.
This year, the Energy Information Administration estimates oil demand growth of 1.76 million barrels per day, which represents an upward revision from the previous estimate of 1.59 million barrels per day.
The following graphic – prepared by the Energy Research Unit – monitors expectations of oil demand growth in major economies during 2024, according to OPEC:
In its first estimates for next year, OPEC believes that the demand for oil may grow by 2.25 million barrels per day, to reach a new record level of 104.25 million barrels per day, attributing this to strong global economic growth with the continued recovery of Chinese activity after recovering from the repercussions of the Corona pandemic. .
OPEC expects oil demand in China to grow to 16.35 million barrels per day in 2024, compared to 15.77 million barrels per day in the current year.
For 2023, OPEC boosted its forecast for global demand growth to 2.44 million bpd, 90,000 bpd more than the June 2023 report forecast.
global oil supply
The International Energy Agency believes that non-OPEC oil supply could grow by 1.18 million barrels per day over the next year, bringing the total to 68.51 million barrels per day.
This increase is likely to be the same as expected for global oil supply, pushing it to a new record of 102.8 million barrels per day, with the fact that all growth will come from countries outside the OPEC+ alliance.
This comes in light of the agreement of the OPEC + coalition to extend the policy of reducing production of two million barrels per day until the end of next year, in addition to the voluntary cuts provided by 9 countries in the coalition, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
In 2023, the International Energy Agency expects non-OPEC oil supplies to grow by about 1.8 million barrels per day, bringing the total to 67.3 million, according to the report monitored by the Energy Research Unit.
On the other hand, the US Energy Information Administration expects an increase in non-OPEC oil supply by 0.96 million barrels per day next year, bringing the total to 68.62 million, a clear decrease from the growth estimates for the current year (2023), amounting to 1.97 million barrels per day.
As for OPEC, its estimates of the growth of oil supply from outside the organization were more optimistic, estimating it at 1.39 million barrels per day, so that the total is expected to reach 68.53 million.
OPEC expects oil supplies from outside it to increase by 1.41 million barrels per day this year, down slightly from last month’s estimate of 1.43 million.
The following graphic – prepared by the Energy Research Unit – reviews OPEC’s expectations for the change in oil liquids production for some countries in 2024.:
global oil stocks
According to the monthly report of the International Energy Agency, commercial oil stocks in OECD countries increased by 5.4 million barrels last May, bringing the total to 2.824 billion barrels, but they remained less than the average of the past 5 years by about 92.2 million.
While the OPEC report showed an increase in commercial oil stocks in the Economic Cooperation Organization by about 20.2 million barrels during May 2023, to reach the level of 2.815 billion barrels.
Global oil inventories were higher by 139 million barrels, on an annual basis, but lower by about 101 million barrels, when compared to the average of the last 5 years.
While the expectations of the US Energy Information Administration indicate that the total global oil stocks reached the level of 2.838 billion barrels by the end of the second quarter of 2023.
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2023-07-16 17:30:10
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