expectations for war in 2023

• Chiem Balduk

  foreign publisher

• Harming Kersten

  Graphic designer

Ukraine is determined to liberate all occupied territories in the country by 2023, President Zelensky said recently. Meanwhile, Russia continues to send tens of thousands of mobilized men to the front and the armed forces must continue to grow to 1.5 million soldiers.

He makes it clear that the war in Ukraine will not end soon, despite hints of negotiations on both sides. Since the liberation of Kherson, the front has been virtually silent for two months. However, the war continues tirelesslywith daily losses on both sides.

What places in Ukraine should you pay attention to in 2023? With the help of military analysts and analyzed satellite images, we zoom in on the places that are decisive for the further course of the war.

Where is it? In the north-east of the country, in the Luhansk region. The successful Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Kharkov region last September he was stopped here by the Russians. This fairly straight front is along a strip of villages and towns along the Krasna River.

Why important? Luhansk is the only one of the four “annexed” regions that is almost completely controlled by Russia. The liberation of Kreminna and Svatove will therefore be a heavy blow. In addition, the embattled cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk will be within the reach of the Ukrainians.

Breaking the defense line between Kreminna and Svatova has important consequences. With the recapture, the Russians are forced to retreat to the next natural defense line miles to the east. That would have undone much of Russia’s territorial gains since last year’s invasion.

The current situation: Russia has brought additional troops and equipment to Kreminna, according to intelligence sources. Satellite images from the European Copernicus program show the Russians establishing additional defense lines east of Kreminna. According to Mart de Kruif, former commander of the Land Forces, these are tank ditches and scattered positions behind them.

“Russia is very worried about a breakthrough here. Ukraine is pushing here,” says defense expert Peter Wijninga of the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague. “You should also see the threat of a possible new offensive from Belarus in this light. As a result, Ukraine is forced to move troops from the northeast to the border with Belarus.”

Where is it? In the heart of the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine. The cities are located northeast of the self-proclaimed “Donetsk People’s Republic,” which Ukraine has lost control of since 2014.

Why important? The cities of Soledar, Bachmoet, Toretsk and Njoe Jork (named after New York) have resisted Russia since the beginning of the invasion. Bachmoet has been at the center of the fighting for weeks. About the value of the place read this article.

The line mainly forms a buffer for the important industrial cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, which are part of Donetsk Oblast. “Those cities remain a desire of the Russians. After all, Putin’s primary goal was the ‘liberation’ of the Donbass region. And he is willing to make great sacrifices for this,” says Wijninga.

The current situation: Bachmut is the only place where the Russians are on the offensive, and the place has therefore become a matter of prestige. “It seems that little is happening, but it is not. One time Russia manages to conquer a territory, the next time the Ukrainians again,” says Wijninga. This comes with great destruction and many deaths.

Here, too, Russia is worried about a Ukrainian breakthrough. At Popasna, east of Bachmoet, an additional anti-tank ditch was built, supplemented with trenches across the entire width:

Where is it? South of the important Ukrainian-owned industrial city of Zaporizhia. The front has been silent since March and has been silent for a long time pretty quiet. More bombings have been reported in recent weeks.

Why important? The area forms Russia’s “land bridge” to Crimea and is therefore of great logistical importance. If Ukraine manages to penetrate here, Russian troops in the Kherson region will be isolated. There is active partisan resistance in the area. Especially in and around the city Melitopolis resistance to the Russian occupation is strong.

The current situation: The Russians fear a Ukrainian offensive north of the city of Tokmak, according to ongoing preparations. Satellite images show that Tokmak is being fortified and the access roads to the city are being strengthened. Southwest of the city, former commander De Kruif sees many obstacles. “The center of gravity is in the east, so they expect a Ukrainian attack mostly from that direction.”

The defenses can also be seen further south, towards the Crimea and the Black Sea:

A Ukrainian offensive here is possible, but very risky, says defense expert Wijninga. “It would be a kind of Market Garden: you work in a narrow corridor towards an objective. You can then be attacked from two sides, which is very vulnerable.”

Where is it? Near the South-Western Front, on the lower reaches of the Dnieper River.

Why important? The city of Kherson has been lying continuously since the November liberation under fire of the Russians. Security can be increased by eliminating Russian artillery or by taking control of the eastern bank of the Dnieper. If we can cross the river, the road to Crimea will be open.

The current situation: Analysts believe Ukraine is unlikely to cross the river in the near term. The Russians dug in here as well, as can be seen in satellite images. Footholds were set up behind the posts on the shore, notes De Kruif.

In this region, too, Russia is ready for a Ukrainian offensive towards Crimea, as in Kalanciak:

Retired General De Kruif notes that there is relatively little depth to the positions, probably due to time pressure. “However, crossing the lines requires careful planning and preparation. You don’t just drive through that.” Also, the lines will be supplemented with minefields, artillery and fortified houses, but will not be visible from above.

A difficult, but not impossible task thus awaits Ukraine. “2023 will be the turning point”, promises President Zelensky. Putin, in turn, swears by his own new year message that Russia will remain “great”.