Intel is expected to explain its plan to solve the next-generation chip process problem on January 21. A research report released by Citi analyst Christopher Danely on Monday pointed out that Intel will announce an expansion of cooperation with TSMC, and TSMC’s revenue will increase, while rival AMD may be The biggest beneficiary.
Danely estimates that Intel will announce a partnership with TSMC (TSM-US) (2330-TW) Reach an agreement to expand the cooperative relationship between each other.
TSMC’s ADR surged 3.3% to 122.60 weekly USD, Intel fell 0.2% to 51.54 USD。
Rival AMD (AMD-US) May be the biggest beneficiary. Under the leadership of CEO Lisa Su, the company’s market share has risen and successfully driven business transformation. AMD rose 2.82% on Monday to close at 97.25 USD, Reached a 52-week high, but it is not clear whether AMD will gain leadership.
Danely wrote that although Intel’s advantage may be reduced, there have been several examples of competitors using TSMC chips. Fabs can still rely on better designs to gain advantages, such as Qualcomm (QCOM-US) Better than MediaTek (2454-TW)，Nvidia (NVDA-US) Is better than AMD.
However, shifting production work to TSMC may hurt Intel’s profits. Danely estimates that Intel’s gross profit margin may drop by 10%, and EPS will drop by 25%.
For TSMC, receiving orders from Intel will increase revenue. Danely estimates that every 2 billion it receivesUSDIntel orders, TSMC’s revenue can increase by 560 millionUSD. Danely believes that Intel may outsource lower-end Atom processors. He currently estimates that Atom chips account for about 15% or 9 billion of Intel’s revenue.USD, Which means that TSMC’s revenue may increase by up to 2.5 billionUSD。
Danely firmly believes that although Intel may outsource more products, it will not eventually spin off the entire manufacturing department. He listed three main reasons: First, it takes about 3 years to bring the chip to the market, and for the first time There is a certain degree of risk. Second, Intel will have to share its intellectual property rights. Third, this will hurt Intel’s profits and profits.
Danely predicts that Intel’s decision to outsource production will have little impact on semiconductor equipment companies.
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