“It is unlikely that the Russia-Ukraine war will end in the near future. However, even after that, it will be difficult to build a truly global security system. We need to build a system that can contain even Russia, but there is a high probability that China will not be with us.” President of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) in Montbrial)
As predicted by geopolitics experts around the world who participated in the World Knowledge Forum, the Russia-Ukraine war, which has been one year since the start of the war, is showing signs of a long-term battle. Regardless of which way the Russo-Ukrainian War ends, a reorganization of the existing world order is inevitable. At the session of the 23rd World Knowledge Forum, “The Future of Global Security after the War in Ukraine,” held at the Shilla Hotel in Seoul last September, security experts around the world exchanged views on the flow of the international order, arguing that it would be very difficult to predict a war between Russia and Ukraine.
Chairman Montbrial said, “NATO (NATO · North Atlantic Treaty Organization) was only a Western regional security system, and the world security system has never existed in the traditional military aspect.” “World security has been maintained by the balance of power and nuclear deterrence “he said. “It is a naive idea to think that a true world order can be established in the near future,” he added.
Chad Sbragia, former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, cited the existence of a partnership between China and Russia as a factor that the Russia-Ukraine war cannot end in the near future. “China needs Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet its ambitions, but the war is causing China very big problems,” he said. that,” he said.
After Chinese President Xi Jinping’s third consecutive term, prospects for China’s direction have also emerged. Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Sbrazia said China saw NATO’s Asianization as an obstacle to achieving its goal of surpassing the United States as the world’s most powerful country by 2050, and would “try to contain further anti-China movements.” However, he predicted, “even so, China will not be able to actually stop the security bloc emerging in Asia.”
There was also a question about anxiety about American leadership. Former White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus said, “Apartmentally, the United States believes that global security cannot be secured unless Putin is defeated. The same goes for cross-strait issues.” “US intelligence agencies predicted and warned of Putin’s invasion, but failed to prevent it,” he said.
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