If you look left, look right, whether near or far from eye level You will see those ‘Campaign billboards’ of political parties began to be placed on both sides of the road. Those things reflect that we know that the atmosphere of the election campaign is definitely beginning.
The election is scheduled to take place on May 14, 2023 and during this election. It makes the political atmosphere is often extra lively.
But there is also another group that is equally active, namely the “stock market”. Many securities companies (securities) have come out to assess the market situation. Including stock groups that will benefit from this election as well, so Techsauce will take you to delve into the situation of investing in the stock market, how is it? And which stocks will benefit from the upcoming 66 election period?
Open the Thai stock market situation?
Mr. Chanchai Phantathanakij, Deputy Director of Research, Asia Plus Securities said that At present, the trend of the Thai stock market, the picture of the market, is in a relatively weak trading value. After our house is approaching the long weekend. In addition, if looking at external factors, that is, foreign countries. Therefore, the main focus over the next 1-2 weeks will be tracking in terms of US economic data, whether it is in terms of labor numbers such as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, Rate Growth and Next week is all about the inflation report. which in this part, the issue that must be followed will be tracking in the part of the picture of the figure how it will be in direction
which if it came out worse than what the market expected This will reduce concerns about US inflation and the Fed’s interpretation of interest rates entering the end of an upward cycle. which will have more weight
but on the other side If this issue comes out lower than expected The risk of an economic recession (Recession) will increase accordingly. which is the main focus that must be followed While in Thailand in the next phase after the opening of Songkran, the market will weigh in terms of announcements of shares in the commercial banking group. That will start from April 18, 2023 onwards and after that will be a period of looking at it in terms of previewing the 1st quarter budget that will begin to gradually announce more. All of which are considered the overall atmosphere.
Therefore, in the short term when environmental factors are not driving anything. Trading value is therefore thin. Therefore, even if the market goes up-down It wouldn’t be too severe.
Outperform receives the merit of money spreading “Before Election”
As for stocks that tend to be raised before the election. Which groups will it be associated with? Khun Chanchai revealed that if looking at the point of view of the election body And look at the statistics in the pre-election section from 2001-2019 that we made out as statistics. It was found that the return 1 month before the election, the stock or the Set Index will increase about 1% on average, and the stocks in the Outperform group are mostly stocks related to Domestic Consumption that expect to have more money during the period. before the election There are stocks like retail, finance, and ICT, which are often Outperform stocks.
What will be the situation after the election?
From the statistics for the same period in the first week will be adjusted. On average, about 38%, which is still considered a chance. But asking how to look at it, you have to look at the election results and see what the monitor market is. 1. The stability of the government How will the votes come out in terms of forming a government? Because it will be the majority that the party is formed from a few parties. which if so, if it looks stable Next, the market will look at the subject of Policies of various political parties related to the economy. Which will support in the corner of the stock market, to what extent?
“If both of these are positive, The market is likely to continue to rise. But if it comes out in a corner where each party wins inevitably The consolidation of the government comes from many parties like the previous rounds, the market may not receive a very positive response. Because in terms of various policies that are issued, the momentum may slow down.”
However, stocks that will benefit from the election campaign policies of each political party include retail groups such as CPALL MAKRO and finance such as BBL, SCB, KBANK, JMT, THANI SAWAD and ICT such as ADVANC.
