Brent oil has been very volatile this year and has followed an almost consistent inverse of new cases of coronavirus infection: When infection rates have risen, oil prices have turned down.
Since the New Year and to the bottom in April, the oil price fell as much as 70 percent. Since then, however, prices have recovered about half of what was lost, but prices are very vulnerable to oil strikes, the amount of oil produced and further shutdowns by society.
At Finansavisen’s conference Investor Days now shares the renowned oil analyst Jarand Rystad in Rystad Energy’s views on the oil price in the time ahead.
– Dramatic collapse
A powerful new wave of contagion is what Rystad maintains as the most dangerous for oil prices. Rystad Energy thus envisages a flat to slightly declining development in oil prices in 2021, against a considerable rise in 2022 and 2023.
However, Rystad sees that further lockdowns can have major consequences.
– A second, third and even fourth wave of infection can lead to a really dramatic collapse in oil prices, says Rystad.
Oil demand hit solidly at the beginning of the year. Photo: Rystad Energy
—
– New industrial era
The Rystad Energy Manager highlights three alternatives to energy types that will dominate in the future: Hydrogen, battery and solar and wind.
In 2040 and 2050, we will be in the zero-emission era, and Rystad believes that green hydrogen can be a winner. However, he points out one important point, which is repeated in the other types of energy, which must be in place.
– Costs must go down. Electrolysis is expensive and has to go down to less than 1 dollar per kilo of hydrogen, Rystad believes.
The batteries also need to be further reduced in cost according to the analyst. However, Rystad believes that Norway can benefit greatly from battery infrastructure.
– We can make large battery factories in this country. We have green energy and cheap engineers. Everything is in place for battery production, and there may soon be a new industrial era in Norway.
Rapid decline in demand
The oil analyst is not blind to the fact that the future is electric, and points out that the sum of solar and wind energy means that almost the entire energy system becomes electric.
– At times, we will get as many electrons as no one wants, which we can use to produce hydrogen, which in turn will replace many of the ways in which oil and natural gas are used today, says Rystad.
Rystad thus sees that oil demand will fall in a longer perspective and maintains a radical estimate. He believes that we have already seen the peak in demand, and statistics Rystad refers to show that demand has halved already during the 2030s.
– Demand will fall globally and it will fall rapidly. This means that we are close to achieving the goals set by the UN, and this is due to the fact that the competitive strength in sun and wind has risen sharply recently.
–
Rystad sees that oil demand will fall markedly in a long-term perspective. Photo: Rystad Energy
—
Extreme fall
Rystad started the ball by mentioning the car traffic that fell markedly after the coronavirus announced its entry. Now, however, traffic is back at 92 percent of normal overall since the summer, and Rystad envisages a pick-up from September.
Russia and Africa actually drive more cars now than before because they reduce the use of public transport, statistics from Rystad Energy show. In the EU and the US, however, traffic has been reduced by 10 percent, which in turn leads to lower demand for oil.
What is more dramatic is the fall in air traffic, which has fallen to 55 percent of normal.
– There are large countries that are continents in themselves that help to keep the flights up. Russia, China and the USA have large numbers of domestic flights, while in Europe there has been a very low level of international flights, says Rystad.
–
