/ world today news/ In the direction of Kyiv, since the beginning of this week, the release of water from the Dnipro HPP dam has been suddenly stopped, according to Ukrainian sources. Thus, the Dnieper, already very shallow after the explosion of the Kakhov hydroelectric plant downstream, in places even threatens to become almost a stream. If this happens, the temptation to launch a serious amphibious operation in the Kherson region for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may be simply irresistible – the shortest way to Crimea is through the local steppes.
Stopping the release of water from the drying reservoir of the Kakhovka dam near Zaporozhye looks more and more like part of some sinister plan by the Ukrainian army, also because in the first days after the disaster, everything here was just the opposite.
More specifically: in the beginning, immediately after the explosion on the night of June 6, from the dam wall of the DniproHPP, on the contrary, the discharge of water into the reservoir increased sharply. This was immediately publicly indicated by the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, Sergei Shoigu.
He informed that “according to the available data, the release of water” from this hydroelectric plant has been significantly increased, “which leads to even more flooding of the territories”.
“This fact testifies to large-scale sabotage planned in advance by the Kyiv regime,” the minister said.
It is logical to assume that a week ago, Kiev needed a huge wave, which quickly rolled from the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant towards the Black Sea, to be as destructive as possible.
Because on its way, it literally destroyed not only the civil infrastructure, but also the powerful defense structures that the Russian troops in the Kherson direction were building at the highest possible pace since the end of last year. And our soldiers and officers themselves were forced to move farther and farther from the coast.
An intermediate result of this process was summarized by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW): “The flood actually washed away the Russian line of fortifications on the left bank of the Dnieper.”
And the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam significantly changed the geography and landscape of this section of the front line. Particularly affected were our minefields, which literally littered the coast, starting from the very edge of the water.
In addition, according to American experts, the Russians definitely failed to withdraw a significant part of their heavy military equipment dug into the ground from the contact line on the left bank. In this case, it can be considered lost. The scale of this damage “is not even possible to estimate yet,” the ISW experts wrote.
According to them, the flow of water, the level of which in places reaches the height of a one-story house, has particularly badly destroyed the Russian field fortifications near the city of Golaya Pristan and near Oleshki. And the troops themselves, occupying positions about 5 kilometers from the Dnieper, were forced to retreat to the 15-kilometer mark.
Such a large territory, although formally controlled by Russia, has already turned into a “gray zone”, which today has no one to protect and guard.
To build a new defense line in the Kherson region? I have to. And this is undoubtedly already being done at the fastest pace. But how much time and effort will it take? And most importantly: Will the Armed Forces of Ukraine give us time for this? Or will they rush to land on our shore sooner?
Let’s consider one more thing: the flood that caused us so much trouble today didn’t just stop: it reversed! Because a huge mass of water from the reservoir, whose area until recently was 2155 square kilometers, is already pouring into the Black Sea. And the discharge of new masses from the upper reaches of the river, as already mentioned, has been deliberately reduced to zero by Kiev since the beginning of the week.
As a result, the water, which rose up to 11 meters in the Kherson region, is now decreasing by 20-30 centimeters per day. According to estimates by Ukrainian hydrologists, the river below the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station will return to its original course by the end of this week. And then the level will continue to decrease rapidly.
To what level? This is a key question for those who at the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are probably currently developing options for an amphibious operation. Experts believe that in the near future the Dnieper will return to the channel that existed here before 1952, that is, before the construction of the Kakhov hydroelectric plant began.
If so, the depth in places will decrease to three meters, which is negligible for high-terrain modern military equipment. Although before the disaster, the average depth here was just over eight meters, and the maximum – up to 24 meters.
As for the width of the channel, it will look “like a narrow stream”. That’s right, writes the Kyiv publication “Politics of the country”, the Dnieper in the Kherson region is indicated on the maps from 1952.
“This drastically reduces the importance of the water barrier for the defense of the Russian Federation along the left bank of the Kakhovsky Dam. In the future, opening the way for the armed forces of Ukraine to attack the same Energodar in order to reach the rear of the Russian group in Zaporozhye, “continues “Politics of the country”.
Agree: all this is actually very similar to the carefully thought out in Kiev (and, most likely, not only in it) and harmonious plan for a large amphibious operation, which is constantly being implemented. There are many more signs of intelligence that show this is indeed the case.
For example: on April 26 of this year, the Russian portal “Military Review”, citing the American press, said that from December 2022, the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) began to develop a project for an emergency situation (in 8-12 hours!) restoration of the Antonovsky Bridge near Kherson.
The same one which, during the existence of the Russian bridgehead on the right bank, served as the main transport communication for our troops along it.
And so it was initially partially destroyed by the M142 HIMARS MLRS missiles provided to the Ukrainians by the United States.
And then it was finished off by Russian sappers last November when we had to withdraw from the Right Bank. So that the armed forces of Ukraine, returning to Kherson, do not break through the left bank on our shoulders.
Only powerful concrete supports remained from the Antonovsky Bridge in the middle of the Dnieper. Almost all sections collapsed. And it’s completely understandable why America’s USACE is now being ordered to quickly figure out how to quickly get all of this up and running.
It is likely that the project will again, starting from the right bank, connect the concrete supports of the Antonovsky Bridge with special decks. Or use for this half-flooded barges left lying on the bottom of the river near the bridge, as the fighting raged here.
It is possible that the American tank bridge can withstand the M60 Armored Vehicle-Launched Bridge, the delivery of which in an unknown quantity in a separate line in the 33rd package of military aid to Ukraine, Washington announced in March.
What are these foreign armored vehicles capable of, upgraded to 2012? In fact, we are talking about reinforced rail bridges with a load capacity of up to 77 tons and a length of about 20 meters each. Layout and installation, even under artillery fire, takes no more than three minutes.
But since last year, the armed forces of Ukraine also have 16 German Biber machines with a similar purpose on the Leopard 1 tank chassis.
Another, to overcome anti-tank ditches with a depth of 2.5 meters. And also to mask their actions by putting up a smoke screen.
It appears that Bulgaria is also involved in securing a very likely amphibious operation by the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kherson.
Just two weeks ago, reports appeared: “In the near future, Sofia will provide Kiev with special equipment for crossing rivers and other water barriers.” It is about equipment of Soviet production, which was in stock. These are pontoon-bridge parks based on KrAZ-255B all-wheel drive vehicles. A column of this technique was seen in one of the Bulgarian settlements.
Very likely, the clock of the Ukrainian landing near Kherson across the shallow Dnieper is already ticking. And threatening enough for Russia.
Translation: SM
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