In order not to disrupt the functioning of the earth system, global emissions must be reduced in this decade. Researchers write this in a new study. “Every tenth grade counts. ”
They analyzed the risk of ’tilt’ for four main interconnected elements of the climate: the Greenland Ice Sheet, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Current (AMOC or Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the scientific literature ) and the Amazon rainforest.
These big parts won’t turn over night. But human-induced climate warming can trigger processes that unfold over tens, hundreds or thousands of years. These changes are so great that we must prevent them at all costs, the researchers say.
2300 seems a long way off
In their new study, which appeared in Nature Communication, they assessed the risks of destabilization of at least one major element as a result of exceeding the 1.5 degree Celsius limit. Their study shows how crucial it is for the state of the planet to comply with the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.
“Although time frames up to 2300 seem a long way off, it is important to map tipping risks as clearly as possible. Our findings show how important it is to make greenhouse gas emissions and keep them net zero to limit these risks for hundreds of years and beyond,” explains author Tessa Möller , a scientist at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
“If the world adheres to current climate policies until the end of this century, we have a 45 percent chance that at least one of the four elements will pass by 2300,” says Möller.
Terrible consequences
“Every tenth degree counts when it’s above 1.5 degrees Celsius. But if we were also to exceed 2 levels of global warming, things could escalate even faster. This is of great concern because it is estimated that conditions that follow current climate policies will lead to global warming of around 2.6 degrees by the end of this century,” said another author, Annika Ernest Högner from PIK.
On the other hand, the study confirms that the risk of reversal can be limited if warming is reversed quickly. This is only possible with zero (net) emissions by 2100.
“Our analysis of tipping point risks further supports the conclusion that we are underestimating the risks and that we must now recognize that the legally binding target in The Paris Agreement to limit global warming to ‘well below 2 degrees Celsius’ means we are in reality. limit global warming to 1.5 degrees,” says study author and PIK director Johan Rockström
“If emissions do not fall enough, there is a risk of continuing to exceed this temperature limit, which we must reduce completely in order to limit the negative consequences for people around the world,” concluded Rockström.
2024-08-06 14:55:27
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