The Nile is the lifeline for northeast Africa. Ethiopia is hoping for prosperity and has been building a gigantic dam for almost a decade. The country has been in a dispute over water for much longer with Egypt – and it threatens to escalate again.
Around 52,600 million cubic meters of water flow down the Blue Nile from the Ethiopian highlands on average each year. Ethiopia wants the floods in the future largest dam in Africa to be chased by turbines. For the country, the electricity generated is the key to economic development. But the dam downstream is an existential threat to Egypt. The two-year dispute between the two countries over the project has now reached a temporary climax. In July, Ethiopia plans to begin filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd) reservoir – with or without agreement with the regional neighbors Sudan and Egypt.
The three countries are now back at the negotiating table and time is running out. The importance of the Nile and the Renaissance dam for the three countries can hardly be overestimated. The desert state of Egypt covers up to 97 percent of its water needs from the Nile, which was understood as the “stream of life” in ancient times and which was honored with its own goddess named Anukis. Agriculture, industry and households depend on the river. Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry put it this way last September: “For Egypt, the Nile question is a matter of life and death.”
Ethiopia started building the dam in 2010.
(Foto: picture alliance/dpa)
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Many Egyptians also see history on their side. Agreements at the time of the British colonial rule and thereafter gave Cairo the right to a large part of the Nile water. The rest went to Sudan – Ethiopia and other Nile countries were not taken into account. “Addis Ababa ignores Egypt’s historical right to the Nile,” says Ruschdi Arunut, a 70-year-old farmer from near Luxor. In the otherwise dry desert state, corn, rice and sugar cane, as well as fruit and vegetables, grow along the Nile.
“Question about life and death”
The dam is on the border with Sudan.
(Foto: picture alliance/dpa)
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Ethiopia also sees itself in the right to use the electricity. Addis Ababa urgently wants to lift its 110 million inhabitants out of poverty and turn the country into the production center in Africa. But there is a lack of electricity. According to the World Bank, only about 45 percent of the population has access to electricity. The $ 4.6 billion dam, which has been built since 2011, is expected to generate up to 6,450 megawatts of electricity, making it the heart of Ethiopia’s modernization plans. At the same time, the dam is a highly emotional – and highly political – project. For the Ethiopians, it symbolizes the national pride and independence of the state. It is funded entirely from Ethiopian funds, at times employees of state-owned companies had to give up part of their salary.
There is also a lot at stake for Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed: The young head of government recently received the Nobel Peace Prize for peace efforts in the region, but is struggling with ethnic conflicts and political headwinds. He needs a successful completion of the dam project. Abiy cannot afford weakness against Egypt.
Sudan is between the chairs. After the military coup against President Omar al-Bashir in 2019, the country is still economically weak and fragile. The seasonal Nile floods are reduced by the dam. Regular water flow will benefit agriculture and Khartoum will be able to buy cheap electricity. But if there are problems with the dam, Sudan will suffer first. Khartoum “sees many advantages, but would like to get assurances about the risks,” said William Davison of the International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank. Above all, the filling of the reservoir is controversial: the faster it is filled, the less water arrives downstream.
Concern for water supply in droughts
At the beginning of the year, the three states were on the verge of reaching an agreement with the help of the United States, but it burst. “We will start filling the reservoir next month, even if there is no agreement between the three countries,” warned Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister Gedu Andargachew after the talks failed. “We now have a short window of opportunity in which there is a risk of escalation escalating, but also another chance to reach an agreement,” said Davison. One of the last major issues to be debated is how much water Ethiopia will let through in periods of drought. Cairo wants a guarantee in the event of dry seasons that Addis Ababa will make up for the lack of water downstream. However, from the perspective of Ethiopia, Egypt is not entitled to a certain proportion of the Nile water. The Egyptians “want to control everything,” criticized Foreign Minister Gedu.
The meeting in November 2019 in Washington.
(Foto: imago images/ZUMA Press)
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An agreement before Ethiopia begins to fill the reservoir would be a symbolic victory for the region – and cooperation is sorely needed. The problem of water scarcity is likely to become more acute: According to UN estimates, 160 million people will live in Egypt in 2050, 205 million in Ethiopia and 81 million in Sudan. Experts also warn that operating the gigantic dam without close coordination with the dams downstream would be very risky.
Cairo does not want to give in and has asked the UN Security Council to mediate in the dispute. Serious military confrontation over the dam is unlikely – but there were threats from both sides. The billionaire Egyptian entrepreneur Naguib Sawiris recently warned of a water war: “We will never let a country starve us,” he wrote on Twitter. “If Ethiopia fails to make sense, the first thing we will do is call for war, the Egyptian people.”
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