2024. november 28. – 16:17
The governing parties continue to have the highest social support Szadvég’s November party preference surveys according to – the research institute close to Fidesz told MTI on Thursday. Compared to their survey at the end of October, however, it can be seen that, despite this, Századvég also saw a weakening in the support of the governing parties.
According to the November results, the Fidesz-KDNP ranks at 38 percent among voters who are politically active, certain or likely to participate in the election – Századvég still measured 40 percent for the ruling party in October. The Tisza Party currently follows with 32 percent, this number was 31 percent in October.
The third place was taken by the Hungarian Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (MKKP) with 9 percent, while Mi Hazánk maintains its stable 6 percent, also measured in October. According to Századvég, the support of the Democratic Coalition is currently at the 5 percent entry threshold, while Momentum and MSZP remain below that threshold with 2 and 1 percent. The proportion of those who are unsure and refuse to answer is 6 percent.
Regarding the preferences of active party voters, the government parties are currently at 40 percent, while the Tisza Party is at 35 percent, which also shows the convergence of the two parties, when compared with the results of 43 and 34 percent researched in October.
Századvég collected the data between November 14 and November 19, and conducted the research among the politically active, adult Hungarian population by interviewing a thousand adults.
Just on Thursday, before the publication of Századvég’s research, a recent survey by Median came out, according to which the Tisza Party already stands at 47 percent among sure party voters, while Fidesz only has 36 percent. We spoke with political analyst Zoltán Lakner on the Telex broadcast about how much this means a real, 11 percent Tisza advantage.
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## Fidesz-KDNP Lead Continues to Narrow as Tisza Party Surges: What Does it Mean for the 2024 Elections?
Recent polling data from Hungary showcases a tightening race for the upcoming 2024 elections. While the governing Fidesz-KDNP alliance maintains the lead, a significant surge in support for the newly formed Tisza Party is reshaping the political landscape. World Today News sat down with leading political analyst Zoltán Lakner to dissect these latest findings and explore their potential implications for the upcoming vote.
Zoltán Lakner is a renowned political analyst with over two decades of experience. He has authored numerous publications on hungarian politics and regularly contributes to leading news outlets. Lakner is well-regarded for his insightful analysis and unbiased observations.
This interview will delve into the key takeaways from recent polls conducted by Századvég and Median, examining the shifting dynamics between Fidesz-KDNP and the Tisza Party. We will explore the factors contributing to the Tisza Party’s rise,analyze the implications for Hungarian political parties,and discuss the potential impact on the 2024 elections.
### Shrinking Lead: Fidesz-KDNP still Ahead, but Momentum Shifts
**World Today News:** Századvég’s latest poll shows Fidesz-KDNP maintaining the lead with 38% support among active voters, while the Tisza Party sits at 32%. Though, Median’s poll paints a different picture, with Tisza surpassing Fidesz at 47% to 36%.
Can you shed some light on these differing results and what they indicate about the current state of the race?
**Zoltán Lakner:** The discrepancies between Századvég and Median polls highlight the inherent challenges in accurately predicting voter behavior.
Both polls utilize different methodologies and sample sizes, which can contribute to variations in the results. Századvég, traditionally perceived as closer to Fidesz, could be influenced by self-selection bias in its sampling.
Median, on the other hand, might capture a wider cross-section of the electorate. Irrespective of the specific numbers, both polls clearly demonstrate a trend: the Tisza Party’s support is growing, while Fidesz-KDNP’s lead is shrinking.
### The Rise of Tisza: Factors Fueling the Surge
**World Today News:** What are some key factors contributing to the Tisza Party’s rise in popularity?
**Zoltán Lakner:** Several factors are driving the Tisza Party’s ascent.
Firstly, they have successfully positioned themselves as a viable choice to both Fidesz and the left-wing opposition, attracting voters disillusioned with the existing political landscape.
Secondly, their focus on local issues and their outsider status resonates with voters seeking change and fresh perspectives.
their strong social media presence and effective communication strategies have allowed them to effectively reach and engage with potential voters.
### Implications for the opposition: A New Dynamic
**World today news:** How does the Tisza Party’s rise impact the existing opposition parties in Hungary?
**Zoltán Lakner:** The emergence of the Tisza Party creates both challenges and opportunities for the opposition.
On the one hand, they now face a competitor for disillusioned voters, potentially diluting the anti-Fidesz vote.
However, the Tisza Party’s success could also encourage greater unity and cooperation among opposition groups.
>If they can find common ground and forge a cohesive strategy, they might be able to capitalize on the shifting political currents and present a more formidable challenge to Fidesz.
### Looking Ahead: Predicting the 2024 Outcome
**World Today News:** With almost a year until the next elections, what are your predictions for the outcome?
**Zoltán Lakner: ** Predicting election outcomes is inherently complex, but the current trends suggest a potentially highly competitive race.
While Fidesz-KDNP remains a formidable force, the Tisza Party’s momentum cannot be ignored.
The 2024 elections will likely hinge on several key factors, including the effectiveness of the opposition’s campaign, the government’s performance in addressing economic concerns, and the success of each party in mobilizing their base.
One thing is certain: Hungarian voters will have a crucial choice to make.
### Engaging with Hungarian Politics:
The upcoming elections hold profound implications for the future of Hungary. We encourage our readers to stay informed, follow the campaigns closely, and engage in constructive dialog about the issues that matter most.
For further insight into Hungarian politics, we recommend exploring our previous articles on the rise of populism in Europe and the state of democracy in Hungary. What are your thoughts on the shifting political landscape in Hungary? Share your insights in the comments section below!
