The expert on Islam and the Middle East analyzes the consequences of the resignation of the Palestinian Authority government and the tombstone decision on the prospect of the establishment of an independent Palestinian state of the Knesset.
A resignation. Unexpected (?). Prime Minister Mohammad Staiyeh and the government of the Palestinian Authority. Just a few twenty-four hours after the almost unanimous decision of the Knesset-tombstone to the prospect of establishing an independent Palestinian state, which “stirred the stagnant political waters in the Occupied Palestinian Territories”, according to the expert on Islam and the Middle East, Dr. Evangelo Veneti.
And, therefore, it can be perceived “as a response and communicative effort by Mahmoud Abbas to remove Fatah and the rest of the secularized political organizations from the disrepute they have fallen into in front of the Palestinian public opinion as a result of the blatant, in the eyes of the Palestinians, inaction of the toothless Palestinian Authority in the war of the Gaza Strip”, the mediator estimates speaking to BIMA, foreseeing that Abbas “with his eyes fixed on the post-war political scene, is trying to get out of the political deadlock, to survive politically and to send the political message in two directions: on the one hand, internally it aims to create a climate of unity, creating the conditions for mutual understanding and cooperation with Hamas and Islamic Jihad. On the other hand, it appears to be partially yielding to American pressure for a “government of technocrats” without the participation of Hamas.”
Besides, the post-war stake for the Palestinians, according to ELIAMEP’s scientific partner in Middle East issues, “is the creation of a common political front between the Islamists of Hamas and the secularists of Fatah. Although the US and Israel are systematically undermining Palestinian unity, the determining factor in political developments in Palestine will be the outcome on the battlefield, where Hamas is, so far, winning the war. This is well known to Abbas who is trying to survive politically.”
Why does a waiver only have the specific connotations? Weren’t there also internal conflicts in the Palestinian Authority?
Although there are conflicts and objections within the Palestinian Authority for its passive attitude in the war of the Strip, the resignation of Stayeh is not a spontaneous and authentic reaction of the Palestinian Prime Minister to President Abbas. It does not reflect the existing division in the ranks of the Palestine Liberation Organization. The officials of the Palestinian Authority and the representatives of the Palestine Liberation Organization have limited room for resistance to Israel, because on the one hand they are under the constant surveillance of the Israeli intelligence services, on the other hand most of the officials have come to terms with and are satisfied with the limited power they exercise in the D. Bank and the salary they collect with the encouragement of Israel. Any official or ordinary member of the Palestinian Authority who attempts to question the status quo of the Israeli occupation is imprisoned or at risk of losing his life. If Staiyeh really wanted to challenge the status quo he would not have resigned but would have attempted the overthrow of Mahmoud Abbas. Therefore, in the face of the looming Ramadan truce, Stayeh’s resignation is part of Mahmoud Abbas’s own orchestrated effort in cooperation with the US and Israel to create a new technocrat government to rebuild Gaza post-war. With the Palestinian Authority aspiring to take over from Israel power in Gaza if Hamas is neutralized or politically compromised.
Is there an alternative?
Yes. Abbas is putting together a new government to be called a government of national unity in cooperation with Hamas in the event of a permanent ceasefire between Hamas and Netanyahu.
Do you think we will see more changes in the Palestinian Authority in the near future? However, with Abbas unmoved?
Yes, there may be a new government of technocrats but without replacing President Mahmoud Abbas. The Palestinian Authority will continue political tactics to maintain power in the West Bank by avoiding conflict with Israel, while Hamas is waging the real war in Gaza by exposing and delegitimizing Abbas in the West Bank. Hamas’s influence in the West Bank is steadily increasing, threatening to overthrow the Palestinian Authority cooperating with the enemy Fatah.
Do you think, therefore, that after the war Abbas will manage to “survive” once more and have a share in the “divide”?
In the short term, he hopes for this based on the support of Israel, Jordan, S. Arabia and Egypt, but not on the Palestinian public opinion. In the medium term, however, the popularity of Hamas in the public opinion of the West Bank will create a new political scenario, the “Gasification of the West Bank”, where Abbas will be marginalized over time.
How could the Palestinian side respond to the Knesset’s decision not to establish a Palestinian state?
Ideally, with the creation of a unity government between Fatah and Hamas, even on paper, in the first phase. However, this presupposes the radicalization of Fatah and the conflict with Israel in the West Bank.
But why did the Knesset proceed so defiantly in this decision when the USA, the UK, European governments, Arab states and international bodies, unwaveringly talk exclusively about a two-state solution?
This is a knee-jerk reaction of the Zionist movement inside and outside Israel against Israel’s operational Waterloo in the war that began on October 7. The Knesset’s move reflects the unfavorable position conservative forces in Israel have found themselves in due to Israel’s failure in the ongoing war.
Will Israel have the final say on the future of Palestine?
The one who wins the war will have the final say. Hamas emerges strategically victorious even with a draw.
How should the Arab world have reacted to the Knesset’s decision?
He should support a new unity government for Palestine between Hamas and Fatah. While the Arab and Islamic world is on the side of the Palestinians, the regimes of some Arab countries do not express the opinion of their people. Instead of supporting the Palestinian Resistance, they remain apathetic. By challenging the status quo in Aden, the Resistance Front for Palestine is showing the way of change to pro-American regimes by encouraging them to sever economic ties with Tel Aviv.
The Shields operation, in which Greece badly participates, in Aden under the guise of protecting navigation, is directed against International Law and the Palestinians, as a large part of Israel’s war supplies pass through Aden. And all this at a time when the systematic atrocity against the Palestinian civilian population is being carried out with 30,000 dead, almost half of whom are children. Greece must immediately review and withdraw its participation from the operation in question. The Hydra frigate must return to Greek waters and Larissa cease to have a role in the management of the operation.
How much longer do you expect the war in Gaza to continue?
The war will continue after the looming Ramadan Truce for at least one to two months. The battle of Rafah will be intense after Ramadan as Israel attempts to cut off Hamas’ underground supply lines through the Philadelphia Corridor as well as depleting Hamas’ munitions. Hamas is armed to last a year. The permanent war will continue on both sides with the main stake being the fatigue and weakening, spiritual and material, of the opponent. The winner will be the one who withstands the most attacks, not the one who makes the most attacks.
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