As Europe embarks on a new political cycle, the European Union (EU) finds itself navigating a complex and rapidly evolving global landscape. The June 2024 European Parliament elections ushered in a fresh leadership team, including the second Von der Leyen Commission presidency, Antonio Costa as President of the European Council, and the Polish Government under Donald Tusk taking over the Presidency of the Council of Ministers.This robust leadership ensemble will need to collaborate effectively to address the EU’s immediate and long-term challenges in a multipolar world.
The 21st-century global order—or disorder—does not align wiht the EU’s historical DNA or preferences. As the world’s most robust multilateral institution, the EU thrives in a rules-based international order where trade is regulated and security is underpinned by the Transatlantic Alliance. However, the shifting global power balances and authority structures present meaningful geopolitical and geo-economic challenges. The EU’s normative and regulatory power sources, while formidable, are insufficient in this new world order. The beginning of a second Trump presidency further accentuates these challenges, introducing unpredictability, disruption, and an anti-EU bias into transatlantic relations. Yet,the EU is not destined to be a mere plaything; it has the agency to be a global player. To do so, it must learn to navigate the emerging multipolar world and mobilize resources for collective action in key areas.
Playing into a Multipolar World
Table of Contents
The Cold War era’s bipolar world gave way to a brief period of unipolarity when US power surpassed that of any other state. Today’s world is multipolar, with neither the US nor China commanding enough power to dictate the rules of international politics. However, this multipolarity is unbalanced, with these two states serving as strong poles of attraction, while other powers like Russia, Iran, Turkey, india, Brazil, South Africa, and Japan are on the rise. The EU must decide whether it sees itself as a middle power or aspires to be a pole of attraction—not as powerful as China or the US,but influential nonetheless. If the EU aims to be a global player, it should act as a pole of attraction in its neighbourhood and a hedge for other states faced with the two great powers.
The evolution of US-Sino relations under Trump will significantly influence how Europe navigates this multipolar world. The balance between competition and cooperation is critical for Europe, as is the level of security or economic vulnerability to either power. The EU has long debated the question of strategic autonomy but must now decide on the actions it needs to take to move towards the future proactively. Agility and adaptability are paramount in a world of jockeying powers and unpredictable politics. The EU needs to be resolute with both major powers and be prepared to defend itself. The political agreement with Mercosur, concluded on December 6, 2024, exemplifies hedging US-Sino relations and strengthening multilateralism in the global system. However, objections from European environmentalists and farmers may derail the agreement, signaling European weakness.
key Challenges and Opportunities
| Challenge | Opportunity |
|—————|—————-|
| Shifting global power balances | Strengthening multilateralism |
| Unpredictability under Trump | Proactive strategic autonomy |
| Economic and security vulnerabilities | Hedging US-Sino relations |
| Environmental and farmer objections | Mobilizing collective action |
The EU’s leadership team must leverage its collective strength to address these challenges. As Antonio Costa and Donald Tusk take their respective roles,the EU’s ability to navigate this multipolar world will hinge on its capacity to adapt,collaborate,and assert its influence. the political agreement with mercosur is a critical step, but its success will depend on overcoming internal objections and demonstrating European resolve.
Support Social Europe for less than €5 per month and help keep our content freely accessible. Your contribution ensures that we continue to provide insightful analysis and meaningful engagement on the EU’s evolving role in the global landscape.Europe’s Struggle Against Russian Disruption: A decade of Hybrid War and Tough Choices
Europe is locked in a hybrid war with Russia, a disruptor state determined to undermine European security and democracy. The eastern half of the continent is embroiled in a battle for sovereignty as Vladimir Putin seeks to regain control over former soviet republics. Ukraine bears the brunt of this imperialist venture, but the ripple effects are felt across the region, where nations are torn between aligning with Russia or the European Union.
The EU’s response has been mixed. While Belarus remains firmly in Russia’s camp, Moldova faces energy crises after the closure of the Ukrainian transit route. In Georgia, protests erupted following the government’s decision to freeze talks with the EU. These struggles highlight the geopolitical tug-of-war shaping Europe’s future.
The High Stakes of Ukraine’s War
The outcome of the war in Ukraine will define Europe’s security and political landscape for decades. As Putin’s plans unfold,the EU must mobilize its resources to counter his ambitions. This requires not only supporting Ukraine but also bolstering pro-EU forces across former Soviet states.However, unity within the EU is fragile. The pro-Russian stances of leaders like Viktor Orban and Robert Fico complicate collective action. The EU must either rally as a bloc or rely on coalitions of the willing to address these challenges.
Mobilizing europe’s Capacity
The Letta and Draghi Reports have laid bare Europe’s urgent need for strategic investment in technology, climate mitigation, defense, and security. The EU’s reliance on values and markets is no longer sufficient. Public finance and collective borrowing must be leveraged to meet geo-economic and strategic demands.
In the short term, the EU must enhance its capacity to support ukraine.this effort may require collaboration with non-EU states like the UK,Turkey,and Norway. The transatlantic defense consensus, once a cornerstone of European security, is waning. Europe must now forge its own strategic purpose and military capacity.
A Decade of Consequential Choices
The next decade will be pivotal for Europe, rivaling the post-World War II era in significance. Tough choices and trade-offs lie ahead. Political instability in Germany and France, coupled with the rise of the radical right, complicates decision-making.
Europe’s ability to navigate these challenges will determine its role on the global stage. Failure to act risks further weakening the continent’s agency and capacity. Yet, history offers hope. europe has recovered from two world wars, enjoying 50 years of peace and prosperity. The question now is whether it can rise to the occasion once more.
Key Challenges and Opportunities
| Challenge | Opportunity |
|———————————–|———————————————————————————|
| Russian aggression in Ukraine | Strengthening EU unity and support for Ukraine |
| Energy crises in Moldova | Diversifying energy sources and reducing reliance on Russian supplies |
| Political instability in Germany | Reinforcing democratic institutions and addressing radical right movements |
| Pro-Russian stances in Hungary | Building coalitions of willing EU states to counter internal dissent |
The stakes are high. Peace,prosperity,and democracy hang in the balance. Europe must decide whether it will forge its future or yield to external forces.
What’s Next for Europe?
the EU’s ability to mobilize its resources and unite its member states will determine its trajectory. As the continent faces its most consequential decade sence World War II, the choices made today will shape its future for generations.
For more insights on Europe’s geopolitical challenges, explore the Letta and Draghi Reports and stay informed about the evolving dynamics of the EU-Russia relationship.
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This article is based on exclusive analysis from Social Europe.Brigid Laffan: A Legacy of leadership in European academia and Policy
Brigid laffan, an esteemed figure in European academia and policy, has carved a distinguished career spanning decades. As an Emeritus Professor at the politics and governance.
Laffan joined the Politics at UniversityInstitute”>European University institute | 2013–2021 |
| Professor of European Politics | Social Europe.
Ternal pressures. The choices made in the coming years will shape not only Europe’s destiny but also the global order. The EU must act decisively, leveraging its collective strength, fostering unity, and addressing internal divisions to navigate the complexities of a multipolar world.
Key Takeaways:
- EU’s Role in a Multipolar World:
The EU must decide whether to position itself as a middle power or a pole of attraction. Its ability to act as a hedge against the dominance of the US and China will determine its global influence.
- Strategic Autonomy and Adaptability:
The EU needs to move beyond debates on strategic autonomy and take concrete actions. Agility and adaptability are crucial in a world of shifting power dynamics and unpredictable politics.
- Challenges from Russia:
Europe is engaged in a hybrid war with Russia, which seeks to undermine European security and democracy. The EU must counter Russian aggression, especially in Ukraine, while addressing internal divisions and pro-Russian stances within its ranks.
- Economic and Security Vulnerabilities:
The EU must address its economic and security vulnerabilities,particularly in relation to the US and China. Hedging strategies,such as the Mercosur agreement,are essential but must overcome internal objections.
- Mobilizing Collective Action:
The EU needs to invest in technology, climate mitigation, defense, and security. Collaboration with non-EU states and leveraging public finance are critical to meeting geo-economic and strategic demands.
- Internal unity and Leadership:
Political instability in key EU states like Germany and France,coupled with the rise of radical right movements,complicates decision-making. The EU must reinforce democratic institutions and build coalitions to counter internal dissent.
- Ancient Resilience:
Europe has a history of overcoming crises, from two world wars to decades of peace and prosperity.The question is whether it can rise to the occasion once again in the face of current challenges.
Conclusion:
the EU stands at a crossroads, facing both immense challenges and opportunities. Its ability to navigate the complexities of a multipolar world, counter external threats like Russian aggression, and address internal divisions will determine its future role on the global stage.By leveraging its collective strength, fostering unity, and making tough choices, the EU can emerge as a resilient and influential player in the 21st century. The stakes are high,but history offers hope that Europe can rise to the occasion once more.
