COVID-19 Pandemic Cost Europe Nearly 17 Million Years of Life, Study Finds

A comprehensive study published in PLOS Medicine reveals the staggering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the European population. Between 2020 and 2022, approximately 289 million people across Europe collectively lost nearly 17 million years of life. The research, conducted by a team from the United Kingdom, Poland, Finland, and the United States, meticulously analyzed the direct and indirect consequences of the pandemic, including the burden of disability, to paint a clearer picture of the true cost of the global health crisis. The study underscores how the pandemic exacerbated existing socioeconomic inequalities and placed immense strain on healthcare systems.

These findings emphasize the urgent need for proactive policies and strategic resource allocation to effectively manage future pandemics and mitigate their far-reaching effects. The loss of nearly 17 million years of life highlights the profound and lasting impact of the pandemic on European society, extending far beyond the immediate mortality figures.

Methodology: Modeling the pandemic’s Impact

To quantify the years of life lost, the research team developed a sophisticated computational model. This model tracked individuals older than 35 years as thay transitioned between eight distinct health states, ranging from being disease-free to experiencing various combinations of cardiovascular disease, cognitive impairment, dementia, disability, and ultimately, death. The model was populated with extensive population and mortality data from multiple sources, enabling researchers to project how much longer individuals would have lived had the pandemic not occurred.

The analysis revealed that, across 18 european countries, a total of 16.8 million years were lost due to the pandemic. Notably, nearly two-thirds of these lost years would have been lived without disability and with self-reliant living, highlighting the significant impact on quality of life. This underscores the importance of considering not just the quantity of life lost, but also the quality of those lost years.

Expert Commentary: Downplaying the Pandemic’s Effects

Martin McKee, MD, DSc, a professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in London, England, who was not involved in the study, emphasized the importance of the findings.

“This is an significant analysis. We are seeing systematic attempts to downplay the effects of the pandemic, with many of those moast active now being appointed to leadership positions in the United States. This study shows that death rates substantially underestimate the harms caused by the pandemic and that vaccines don’t just save lives — they reduce disability.”

Martin McKee, MD, DSc, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

McKee’s comments highlight a concern about the potential for underestimating the long-term consequences of the pandemic, particularly in light of efforts to minimize its impact. He stresses that vaccines play a crucial role not only in preventing death but also in preserving quality of life by reducing disability.

Unequal Burdens: GDP, Gender, and Age

The study revealed significant disparities in the number of years lost across different demographics and countries. Nations with lower gross domestic product (GDP) experienced a greater loss of years, indicating that socioeconomic factors played a crucial role in determining the pandemic’s impact. Men also experienced a higher number of years lost compared to women, and the elderly were disproportionately affected, with 90% of the nearly 17 million lost years occurring among individuals aged 65 years or older.This finding underscores the importance of prioritizing vaccination efforts for vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly.

Sara Ahmadi-Abhari, MD, PhD, lecturer in the epidemiology of ageing at Imperial College London, London, England, and the study’s lead author, highlighted the importance of the findings regarding disability-free years.

“Despite the notion that most of lost lives related to the pandemic were in poor health, a large proportion of the years of life lost would have been without disability.”

Sara Ahmadi-Abhari, MD, PhD, Imperial College London

Ahmadi-Abhari’s statement emphasizes that the pandemic’s impact extended beyond those already in poor health, affecting a significant number of individuals who would have otherwise enjoyed many years of healthy, independent living. This underscores the broad and devastating reach of the pandemic.

Vaccination rates proved to be a crucial factor in mitigating the loss of years, independent of a country’s GDP. Such as, Portugal, despite having a relatively low GDP per capita, experienced a similar per capita loss of years as Germany, thanks to its high per capita vaccine dosage. This highlights the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns in protecting populations from the most severe consequences of COVID-19.

Healthcare Disruption and Long-Term Impact

While the number of years lost due to COVID-19 decreased from 2021 to 2022 as vaccines became more widely available, the study revealed a concerning trend: years lost due to non-COVID deaths continued to rise. In 2022, nearly half of the total years lost were attributed to non-COVID deaths, highlighting the pandemic’s indirect and long-term consequences.

The increase in non-COVID deaths reflects the strain on healthcare systems, which were overwhelmed by the pandemic. This led to reduced or delayed care for other medical conditions.Lockdowns and other containment measures also contributed to lifestyle changes that negatively impacted health, such as decreased physical activity and social interaction. The pandemic’s ripple effects extended far beyond the immediate impact of the virus itself.

McKee further elaborated on the pandemic’s impact on healthcare.

“The early phase of the pandemic had profound consequences for healthcare. Health workers experienced burnout, and some died. Ther was huge disruption, and this continued after the vaccine became available, to some extent as of inadequate uptake.”

Martin McKee, MD, DSc, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

McKee’s comments underscore the immense pressure placed on healthcare systems and workers during the pandemic, leading to burnout, disruption of services, and ultimately, an increase in non-COVID deaths. He also points out that even after vaccines became available, inadequate uptake continued to contribute to the strain on healthcare systems.

The Path Forward: Pandemic Preparedness

The study underscores the need for further research to fully understand the impact of various policies and the resulting disruptions. Addressing socioeconomic inequalities in future pandemics remains a significant challenge. Ahmadi-Abhari emphasized the importance of comprehensive pandemic preparedness.

“The considerable loss in years of life, particularly given more than half would have been lived without disability, underscores the critical need for a comprehensive pandemic preparedness program, which coudl provide both immediate and long-term public health benefits.”

Sara Ahmadi-Abhari, MD, PhD, Imperial College London

Ahmadi-Abhari’s call for a comprehensive pandemic preparedness program highlights the need for proactive measures to mitigate the impact of future outbreaks. Such a program should address not only immediate public health needs but also long-term consequences, including socioeconomic disparities and healthcare system resilience.

The study was independently funded by Imperial College London and the European Institute of Innovation and Technology. Ahmadi-Abhari reported no relevant financial relationships.