(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) – The hope that the Federal Reserve’s aggressiveness will be able to keep inflation at bay without jeopardizing the global economic recovery pushes the European stock markets, which confirm the bullish trend followed yesterday by Wall Street and overnight by the Asian squares. The US central bank has doubled the pace of tapering, the reduction in asset purchases, and now expects three interest rate hikes next year. The Fed’s example was also followed by the Bank of England, which raised its main interest rate to 0.25% (from 0.10%) due to rising inflationary pressures in Britain. On the other hand, the target of 895 billion pounds for the purchase of assets remained unchanged. The ball now passes to the ECB, which will communicate its updates on monetary policy in the early afternoon. The FTSE MIB di Piazza Affari thus gains ground together with the other main lists. Among the main Milanese titles, eyes on Telecom Italia after the new profit warning linked to the contract with Dazn on Serie A football.
As for the ECB, the market’s attention will focus in particular on the future of the ordinary (PSPP) and emergency (PEPP) buyback plans, which will also be crucial for the behavior of the Old Continent’s government bonds.
FTSE Mib stock market trend
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Tim in the spotlight between profit warnings and boardroom expectations
As for Tim, on Wednesday evening the group announced an update of the guidance on 2021 with a sharp deterioration in the domestic EBITDA and in the financial position. The decline in margins is mainly attributable to lower revenues from fixed telephony, in part related to the progress of the agreement with Dazn for the distribution of Serie A Tim. The estimates for the following years will be updated with the 2022-24 plan. “The revision is very heavy – comment the Equita analysts – to verify what can be mitigated in 2022-23 with a revision of the Dazn contract, even if the press release also signals a worsening in the fixed revenues ex Dazn (probably more structural)”. For the experts, therefore, “with these numbers it seems difficult for the board not to consider the Kkr offer with great attention”. Eyes also focused on possible news in terms of governance, even if according to Il Sole 24 Ore in the board of directors on Friday there will be no developments and the resignation of the former to Luigi Gubitosi or the appointment of a new CEO, even if Vivendi could ask the renewal of the board, perhaps also as a negotiating weapon to break the deadlock.
More analysis on the UniCredit plan. For Mediobanca “Santa Claus exists”
Eyes also on UniCredit while Piazza Affari continues to examine the details of the new strategic plan presented last week. Among the latest comments from analysts, we note the one from Berenberg, who confirmed the “buy” recommendation and significantly raised the target price, to 17 euros from the previous 12.1. The Mediobanca experts, for their part, commented on the strategic plan with an enthusiastic “Santa Claus exists: more returns to shareholders and greater profitability than we had desired”, citing in particular the 16 billion capital that will be distributed to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks and the Rote target over 10%.
Spread BTp-Bund at 125 points. Currencies, the Turkish lira dropping
On bonds, it is down spread between BTp and Bund on the day of the ECB meeting. The yield differential between the benchmark ten-year BTp and the German bond of the same duration is initially indicated at 125 basis points, from 128 points at the closing on Wednesday. Slight drop also for the BTp yield ten-year benchmark, indicated at 0.90% from 0.92% of the reference before.
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