by Enrico Miele and Andrea Fontana
In Italy, Istat estimates GDP -0.3% cyclical in the second quarter, +0.6% trend
4′ of reading
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor Plus) – The main ones lengthen European stock exchanges after a positive week for the Old Continent thanks to the driving force of quarterly earnings and with the rate hikes by the Fed and the ECB which took place as expected. July Eurozone inflation fell as expected to 5.3% versus 5.5% previously. Asian price lists are positive thanks to the new stimulus measures for the Chinese economy outlined by the Beijing government, in particular to stimulate consumption in the auto and real estate sectors: this is counteracting the weakness of Chinese manufacturing, which also suffered in July ( albeit less than expected), multiplying the signs of deflation in the main Asian economy.
Eurozone: inflation falls in July, GDP +0.3% in the second quarter
In July, inflation in the euro area stood at 5.3% per annum, down from 5.5% in June. This is estimated by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Looking at the main components of inflation in the euro area, Eurostat reports food, alcohol and tobacco show the highest annual rate in July (10.8%, compared to 11.6% in June), followed by services (5.6%, vs 5.4% in June), non-energy industrial goods (5.0%, vs 5.5% in June) and energy (-6.1%, vs -5.6% in June) % on June).
In the second quarter of 2023, the seasonally adjusted GDP of the euro area increased by 0.3% and remained stable in the EU, compared to the previous quarter. Eurostat estimates it. In the first quarter of 2023, GDP had remained stable in the euro area and increased by 0.2% in the EU. On a trend basis, however, in the euro area the GDP recorded an increase of 0.6% while, in the EU, the increase was 0.5%.
In Milan the banks run, Leonardo on the swing
Il FTSE MIB of Piazza Affari, flat at the start, is moving up thanks to a lively banking sector after the results of the stress test conducted by the EBA and the ECB: “The 2023 stress tests reported a very positive result for Italian banks, confirming the important improvements in terms of balance sheet, asset quality and operational performance achieved in recent years” underlines a Sim. Among the titles the best are Banca Mps, Banca Pop Er e Bank Bpm. On swings Leonardo after the results of the first half and the strategic guidelines drawn up by the new CEO Cingolani: the stock was initially the target of profit-taking given that the double-digit rally in July had brought the prices to almost 12 euros. Downhill Saipem e Pirelli & Cbene Eni e Erg.
They remain close to parity Frankfurt (DAX 40), London (FT-SE 100) and Paris (CAC 40) while Amsterdam (AEX) mostly paid for Heineken’s slump due to a disappointing quarterly for the brewing group.
Asia up well thanks to stimuli from Beijing
Asian stock markets close higher, following Wall Street’s rally on the eve. Investors estimate a drop in inflation and a global economic recovery for the second half of the year. Central bank decisions on monetary policy remain in the spotlight. Tokyo shines (+1.26%), with purchases concentrated on the technology sector and the automotive sector. Surprisingly, the Central Bank of Japan carried out a purchase operation on the bond market to curb the rise in ten-year yields (which jumped last Friday to their top since 2014). On the currency market, the yen is stable against the dollar at 141.70, and at 156.10 against the euro. With negotiations still ongoing, Hong Kong rises (HANG SENG) e Shanghai (SHANGHAI STOCK EXCHANGE A SHARES INDEXs.
China slows down for the fourth consecutive month
Indeed, China’s manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth straight month, while growth in services and other sectors slowed further in July. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 49.3, outperforming little expectations of 49.2 of the consensus. The non-manufacturing PMI, which includes sectors such as construction and agriculture, came in at 51.5. A reading below 50 indicates contraction, while a reading above 50 signals expansion.
Japan’s retail sales increased by 5.9% year on year in June. This was announced by the Japanese government. In the large-scale distribution segment alone, retail sales rose by 4.1% on a year-on-year basis. In Germany, on the other hand, June retail sales fell by 0.8 percent.
BTp, spread above 160 points
Slightly up spread between BTp and Bund. The yield differential between the 10-year benchmark BTP and the German security of the same duration is indicated at 162 basis points from the 161 points of the previous day’s closing. More sensitive rise for the yield of the ten-year benchmark BTP which stands at 4.12%, from 4.09% at the end of last Friday.
Italy’s GDP: growth slows down, data acquired for 2023 is +0.8%
In the second quarter, it is estimated that the GDP, expressed in chain-linked values with the reference year 2015, adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter and increased by 0.6% in trend terms . This was communicated by Istat, explaining that the second quarter had three fewer working days than the previous quarter and one fewer working day than the second quarter of 2022. The cyclical change is the synthesis of a decrease in added value both in the sector of agriculture, forestry and fishing and industry, while the added value of services recorded a slight increase. The variation acquired for the GDP in 2023 is equal to 0.8 percent (0.9% previously).
Prices, index slows down to +6% per year in Italy
According to preliminary estimates, in July the national consumer price index for the entire community (NIC), gross of tobacco, recorded an increase of 0.1% on a monthly basis and 6% on an annual basis , from +6.4% in the previous month. Istat estimates it. The inflation acquired for 2023 is equal to +5.7% for the general index and +5.1% for the core component.
To view this content open the page on ilsole24ore.com
Henry Honey
Radiocor editor
Andrea Fontana
Radiocor editor
View on ilsole24ore.com
2023-07-31 09:22:30
#Stock #markets #rise #Eurozone #inflation #drops #Milan #led #banks #stress #test
