One year and three hundred days of war have passed. Today’s (in fact, yesterday’s) ISW maps unexpectedly show a completely different front line in the Melitopol direction, in the Robotino area. The front line now runs about a kilometer further north than before.
ISW specifically stipulates that this is not the result of a rapid Russian offensive, but a technical adjustment of the institution itself. In other words, as the maps show today, this is how the front line has been in recent weeks, and the fact that ISW still drew it to the south was a consequence of the fact that the institute’s specialists counted the episodic appearances of Ukrainian Armed Forces troops in these places for their stable presence there.
The explanation, to be honest, is so-so. But taking into account the fact that recently I have not seen any victorious reports about the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Robotino from Russian military correspondents, we will accept this explanation for lack of another.
But there is a slight advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces south of Bakhmut, in the Kleshcheevka area. In Avdeevka everything is consistently difficult. The Russians are putting pressure and talk is slowly beginning that it is time to think about withdrawing Ukrainian troops from there in order to avoid falling into the cauldron.
But overall these are all small vibrations. Nothing truly terrible has happened for the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front so far; the Russians are suffering huge losses, and their progress, if there is any, is minimal.
Yesterday I promised to write about what I think about the possible confiscation of Russia’s frozen sovereign assets. Accordingly, I keep my promise.
Firstly, what amounts are we talking about? According to the Financial Times, last year about 260 billion euros of assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation were frozen in the G7 countries, the EU and Australia. The bulk of this amount – about 210 billion euros – is held in the EU, including cash and government bonds denominated in euros, dollars and other currencies.
In Europe, the bulk of assets – about €191 billion – are held at Euroclear, a central securities depository headquartered in Belgium. France, according to the country’s Ministry of Finance, froze the second largest amount, about 19 billion euros. And, for example, Germany froze only about 210 million euros. (For comparison, the United States has frozen only a small amount of Russian state assets: about $5 billion)
Accordingly, if Russia’s sovereign assets are confiscated, the United States will suffer the least reputational damage. This explains their activity in pushing this issue.
The US administration has already officially confirmed negotiations with allies and partners regarding the possibility of confiscating frozen assets of the Russian Federation in order to involve them in the restoration of Ukraine. National Security Council Speaker John Kirby stated:
“I will not talk about specific proposals, but I will say only in a general context. We talked with many of our allies and partners about what Russia’s role should be after the conflict in terms of restructuring, restoring Ukraine in the long term…
However, it is too early to talk about readiness to take any concrete steps in this matter… Russia caused widespread damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure and killed many Ukrainians. Therefore, the Russians must be held accountable for this for a long time…”
Peskov, naturally, immediately stated: “…This topic is, firstly, unacceptable for us. It is potentially extremely dangerous for the global financial system, because if such plans are implemented, it will be a very serious blow to the entire coordinate system of the international financial system.
In addition, those who are trying to initiate this, and those who will implement it, must understand that the Russian Federation will never leave alone those who did this, and will constantly exercise its right to judicial challenge, international, national and other . And this will certainly have legal consequences for those who initiated and implemented it.
And in the end, also, as Lavrov said, if something is confiscated from us by someone, then we will see what we can confiscate in response.
And if something is found, we will, of course, do it immediately. Therefore, these are steps that cannot but have serious consequences.”
This is how parsley turns out. Thus, the decision must be made either by the heads of EU member states, or, in fact, by the government and parliament of Belgium, where the bulk of the frozen money is stored. The United States and other G7 countries (Great Britain, Canada and Japan) can only exert political pressure on Europe; they do not have any authority to decide to confiscate this money.
When deciding on confiscation, the EU will take into account the damage that will be caused to confidence in the European financial system by those countries that keep their sovereign assets in euros. These are, first of all, oil-producing Arab countries, China and some other countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
It will be possible to agree with some that they should not react to this too painfully, with others it will not be possible; some will make a demonstrative gesture and withdraw their assets. It is absolutely clear that this decision will cause some damage to Europe.
But I would not exaggerate its scale. Firstly, because there is nowhere in particular to go. In a dollar? Horseradish is not sweeter than radish. In yuan? It’s also scary: who knows what will come into Xi Jinping’s head? Dictators are an unpredictable people… Shouldn’t Arab sheikhs and other Africans know this?
On the other hand, it is absolutely clear that this money will give Ukraine a good chance to win a convincing victory over Putin’s army. Moscow understands this very well and that is why they react so violently. Putin has no answer to this situation. He has nowhere to get another $100–200 billion.
But it is also true that in the current state of affairs, this money is perhaps the only source of funds to finance Ukraine and its army that corresponds to the scale of the task. Especially considering the fact that money is needed here and now, and when the American Congress will give birth and whether it will give birth at all is unclear.
Thus, European leaders must decide which damage to Europe will be greater: the damage from capital flight associated with this unfortunate confiscation, or the damage from the defeat of Ukraine and the victory of Putin?
After all, it is obvious that Europe, which actively supported Ukraine in this war, will look like the losing side in the eyes of investors. Its safety will raise quite fair doubts. And whether the same Arab sheikhs will want to keep money in Europe, which will be under the potential threat of Putin’s attack, is very doubtful. After all, capital always flees from those countries that are under a serious risk of external aggression. These are the basics.
You can talk as much as you like about whether Putin will attack Europe in the event of his victory over Ukraine or not. I think the risk is low. Other observers think differently. But one thing is clear: if Ukraine wins, there is no such risk at all. Accordingly: why does Europe need these risks? You just need to confiscate Putin’s moneybox and use his own money to fuck him, don’t play around.
I don’t know which scale will tip. And whether European leaders will decide to take such a radical step as confiscation of sovereign assets. But the fact that this is the dilemma is absolutely clear to me.
And to build a legal structure is the tenth question. It will be necessary – they will justify everything. The law is like a drawbar. Despite the fact that Europeans are always talking about the rule of law and all that. When a roast rooster pecks, a solution is quickly found. It is known that the most important cynics in the world are attorneys. Hehe.
So this is what it will be like today: Glory to Ukraine!
Israel has published a map of Gaza, from which it follows that the IDF already controls at least 50% of the enclave’s territory. Currently, there are battles in the area of the city of Khan Yunus. Networks of underground tunnels used by Hamas are being actively destroyed.
But when this whole nightmare will end is unclear. Hamas is not yet ready to release the hostages and does not agree to a truce. Although he does not leave the negotiations. That’s it.
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2023-12-23 09:18:00
