There are those who are leaving, the British; those who will probably never return, the Turks, but which violate the sovereignty of a Member State, Greece ; and then there are those who returned but weaken the democratic edifice from within, Poles and Hungarians. The whole in the middle of a pandemic and slowing economy. The cohesion of Europeans has rarely been put, simultaneously, so much under pressure, and on heavy subjects (budget, rule of law, borders). But so far, she’s holding on.
Physically meeting in Brussels on Thursday 10 and Friday 11 December, the Twenty-Seven will first have to break a deadlock. That created by the veto announced on November 16 by Poland and Hungary. What is it about ? The European Council is supposed to approve, after the green light in November from the European Parliament, the draft EU budget of 1,100 billion over seven years, as well as the unprecedented 750 billion decided this summer. The Twenty-Seven were keen to establish a mechanism henceforth conditioning the granting of European funds on respect for the rule of law, which has been systemically threatened by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban for ten years. And to a lesser extent by the stranglehold of Polish power over the entire judiciary.
Angela Merkel as mediator
However, Budapest and Warsaw are blocking. They believe that access to these funds should not be tied to respect for the rule of law. Angela Merkel, who chairs the Council until January and whose country has powerful economic interests in Hungary and Poland, proposed a compromise. The principle is not negotiable
, says a European diplomat, There is no question of financing a country if it ever turns into dictatorship. But on the calendar, there are margins.
Warsaw and Budapest have accepted a compromise proposal, which must still be validated by the 27, especially the Dutch, very strict on the rule of law.
If they unblock this issue, the Europeans will then discuss three equally crucial subjects. The new relationship with Joe Biden’s America (the European Commission has prepared a text favorable to a new partnership, in particular vis-à-vis China). The imposition or not of sanctions against Turkey of Erdogan, which has repeatedly violated Greece’s territorial sovereignty and destabilized Cyprus. Finally, the nature of the climate commitment, on the eve of the 5e anniversary of the Paris Agreement.
Officially, Brexit is not on the menu for this already hearty summit, but it will be on everyone’s mind. Weighing in on debates is a very British art.
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