Europe must prepare for a second wave but it won’t necessarily be disastrous, says EU coronavirus official

For Andrea Ammon, the question that arises abouta second wave of coronavirus contamination in Europe is not so much whether it will happen, but rather “how big will the phenomenon be?“.

It therefore invites Europeans to continue to respect the measures in order to ensure that this second wave is not disastrous. Questioned by the Guardian, the manager also indicates that she thinks that March ski holidays played a key role in the spread of the coronavirus in Europe.

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The prospect of a second wave of coronavirus infection in Europe is no longer a distant theory, according to the director of the European agency responsible for advising governments on disease control. “The question is when and to what extent is the question in my opinion“says Dr Andrea Ammon, director of the European Center for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).

Now is not the time to relax completely

Andrea Ammon is a German epidemiologist. This former adviser to the German government is watching closely the development of the coronavirus in Europe from Sweden, where the ECDC is headquartered.

“By looking at the characteristics of the virus, and observing what emerges from different countries in terms of population immunity”, she estimates that the immunity rate of individuals to the coronavirus “is only inbe 2% and 14%, which still leaves 85% to 90% of the population likely to contract the virus “.

“The virus is around us, and it circulates much more than in January and February … I do not want to make an apocalyptic fresco but I think that we must be realistic. This is not the time to relax completely“.

However, in early May, the former doctor, who worked on different levels of the healthcare bureaucracy to become director of ECDC in 2017, announced that on May 2, Europe in its together had passed the peak of infections. Only Poland had not yet arrived technically, she said.

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In recent weeks European governments have started to relax their containment restrictions, some to the point that bars and restaurants are gradually reopening, others more timidly.

Andrea Ammon insists that a second disastrous wave of coronavirus contamination is not inevitable if people follow the rules and keep their distance. But it detects a worrying weakening of the public’s determination to comply with the recommendations of the public authorities and not to relax their efforts.

“And especially now that it’s clear that [les infections] are going down, people think it’s over. What is not the case, which is certainly not the case“.

When asked if the data analyzed by EDC showed any impact from these deconfinement measures, Ammon responds to the Guardian in a slightly sarcastic way : “Not yet. I mean, maybe it will never come, maybe all the adjustment for these measures is done in a prudent manner. This is something that we are really watching very closely at the moment: what is happening after all these measures“.

Back to the start of the crisis in Europe

Ammon also recalled that it was only at the end of January that it became clear that a new virus causing a series of deaths in the Chinese city of Wuhan could be transmitted from human to human, the first concerns focusing on the possibility that the disease will spread through imports.

In response to the highly contagious nature of the virus, the ECDC advised governments on January 26 to build the capacity of their health services. It was feared that they would be overwhelmed, as will soon be the case with the tragic results in Lombardy, in northern Italy.

“We really insisted that these plans should be updated. And in particular, the preparation of hospitals that had to be examined, how to ensure sufficient capacity for beds, in general, but also in particular for beds in intensive care units“.

“I think governments have underestimated, in my opinion, the speed at which this increase (of cases) has occurred. Because, I mean, you know, it’s a different situation if you have to look for an increase in bed capacity within two weeks or within two dayss “.

Ammon also believes that when the inevitable inquiries look into the twists and turns of the crisis, thee return of holidaymakers from alpine ski vacations during the first week of March will be considered a pivotal moment in the spread of Covid-19 in Europe.

And then ?

The German professor now believes that the battle against the coronavirus will be long. “I don’t know if it’s forever, but I don’t think it’s going to go away very quickly. It seems to be very well adapted to humans“.

Concerning the summer holidays, she warns those who want to spend a normal summer vacation to disconnect, they may be disappointed: “What we are saying is that they have to prepare for that even if there is a vacation and they are going somewhere, it will not be comparable to what they had last year. At this point, we cannot say that you can go there, wash your hands and everything is fine. You have to keep your distance. These measures must be put in place“.

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