NATO countries may agree to sacrifice part Lithuaniato prevent escalation into a third world war.
Such an opinion on the air of the telethon FREEDOM expressed Mikhail Samus, an expert at the Center for Army Research, Conversion and Disarmament.
“The development of the situation with Lithuania, when Russia directly threatens Lithuania with an offensive, military actions … In fact, there is such a small territory, it is called the Suwalki Gap, which Russia can occupy. It is interesting how NATO will react. Will NATO be able to consolidately activate Article 5 on joint defense, or there will be those who will say: let’s not enter into a direct confrontation with Russia, this is fraught with big problems… Then they can take the position that let’s sacrifice part of Lithuania, give Russia a corridor between Kaliningrad and Belarus, and not allow an escalation into the third world war. Putin can play on it. He understands that there is the same Germany or Hungary, perhaps France, who do not want a direct war with Russia, they understand that they are not ready for it,” says Samus.
The Suwalki corridor is marked with a red line / photo wikipedia.org
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The expert noted that the scenario of capturing the Suwalki corridor of the Russian Federation and Belarus had already been worked out during the exercises.
“The fact is that at all strategic exercises, especially the Russian-Belarusian western ones, starting from Zapad 2017, they practiced this operation. It was the capture of the Suwalki corridor that was always in the scenarios of the exercises. Of course, they were veiled. In the 17th In 1999, the fictional state of Veishnoria was created in this area – very aggressive, pro-Western, and it began some kind of provocative actions against Belarus. And then the union state – Russia and Belarus – including using missile strikes and so on, fell on this Veishnoria, and, of course, won,” he said.
According to Samus, during the exercises, the Suwalki corridor was captured by the clock. In such a short time, either Lithuania or only Poland can react specifically. But NATO as an organization will take days, if not weeks.
“But the most important thing is that the Suwalki corridor is important for the Baltic countries, if it is blocked, they are cut off both logistically and territorially from other NATO countries. That is, other NATO countries will need to activate Article 5. Or Poland will have to break through this corridor on its own, enter into a direct military confrontation with Russia. Or wait for the decision of a consolidated Brussels. This will require the decision of all NATO countries, and we know what kind of bureaucracy can be in Germany,” Samus said, noting that Russia can play on this.
Threats to Lithuania from Russia: what you should know
Subsequently, the governor of the Kaliningrad region Anton Alikhanov saidthat Lithuania’s decision to ban transit is “economic strangulation of the region.” According to Alikhanov, the authorities will seek a review of the decision.
Later member of the Federation Council Andrei Klishas statedthat “an attempt to establish a transport blockade of the Kaliningrad region by Lithuania is a violation of Russia’s sovereignty over this region.”
