Europe is shaking, no one can stop Putin against Ukraine

Russia is once again shaking the European institutions. For several weeks now, they have had to deal with the Iranian nuclear issue and are able to deviate forever from the diplomatic path that Americans and Europeans would like to maintain. Now they have to worry about another potentially very serious crisis, a new attack or even an invasion of Russia in Ukraine, writes Isabel Laser for the French daily Le Figaro.

The risk is considered serious enough, so the West has decided to devote much of its energy to organizing a “deterrent maneuver” before it’s too late. Virtual meeting between Putin and Biden, telephone conversation between Macron and Putin, G7 and European meetings, etc. Prevention rather than cure, the formula is also applied in foreign policy. The activity of the institutions, which aims to “affect Moscow’s accounts”, includes plans for new economic sanctions, reassurance measures against allies, in particular Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. And also verbal threats, such as those from the French foreign minister, who spoke of “massive strategic consequences” in the event of an attack on Ukraine’s integrity.

In Washington, as in Paris, the reinforcement of troops along Ukraine’s borders is considered more worrying than what happened in the spring, which has already raised fears of a new Russian operation after the annexation of Crimea and destabilization of Donbass in 2014. . Why? “In order to have military intervention, you need three things: concentration of heavy equipment, plans for invasion and a political decision by the Russian president,” said a diplomatic source. Military hardening at the borders was noted by Western intelligence services. It is larger in terms of manpower (about 150,000 troops) and equipment than in April.

This was not the case in the spring, but the “plans”, ie the intention, are regularly mentioned in media close to the Kremlin. “We will release Nord Stream 2 very soon, next year. And then we will crush Ukraine,” Russian TV star Skabeeva, for example, promised on Russia. For weeks, the Kremlin’s media, media and think tanks’ discourse on the Ukrainian state, whose legitimacy they have questioned, has become significantly more radical, rewriting history by exposing the “beginning of genocide” against Russia. population in the eastern part of the country … “We call this information field training,” the diplomatic source continued.

The big question for the West is whether the third element, the one that would provoke the war, namely the “political decision” to attack Ukraine, has been taken or not. No one has an answer to this question yet. But everyone remembers that Vladimir Putin, who sees the disappearance of the Soviet Union as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the twentieth century,” has never stopped wanting to return Ukraine, like Belarus and Georgia, to Russia’s bosom.

However, the moment is favorable for those who, like him, know how to take advantage of opportunities. The withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan, which confirmed the desire of the United States to wipe itself out in the Greater Middle East to focus on China. The departure of Angela Merkel, a difficult category in European politics. Elections in France that will monopolize Emmanuel Macron and perhaps soften his international reactions. In addition, the Kremlin’s violent attacks are always organized in August, when Westerners are on the beach, or during the holiday season – another moment of anesthesia in international politics …

However, Vladimir Putin rarely warned before launching a military operation. He prefers to keep the element of surprise. He also knows that invading Ukraine would be costly for both its international image and the Russian economy. What if the demonstration of force on Ukraine’s borders is aimed primarily at snatching an agreement in the region under Moscow’s terms? For several weeks now, Russian authorities have been stepping up attacks on the fading Normandy format, sponsored by France and Germany and aimed at restoring peace in Donbass.

The Russians are no longer interested in the Normandy format. They want to take advantage of Angela Merkel’s departure to kill the process and return to Russian-American face-to-face talks to govern European interests. They set new and new conditions. to resume discussions by rewriting the texts to get Ukrainians to accept their terms. This is obstructionism, “said a diplomatic source.

Between the diplomatic process and the military, the Kremlin knows how to zigzag to serve its interests. “Russia must convince Western countries of the inevitability of an invasion unless the West and Ukraine agree with Russia’s proposals,” wrote Denis Kolesnik, a professor at the National Conservatory of Arts and Crafts. With regard to Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s red line has always been joining NATO and the European Union. Reaffirming his country’s Atlantic and European vocation recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky again clashed with it. His purchases of armed drones from Turkey also run the risk, according to Moscow, of violating the Kremlin’s status quo in Donbass.

By indirectly suggesting to the West that it could invade Ukraine, Vladimir Putin no doubt seeks to persuade it to adopt a status of neutrality toward it, which would prevent it from joining the Alliance and Europe and put it in a “gray zone.” “, easy to manage. Vladimir Putin called for “immediate” talks with NATO and the United States to rule out any future enlargement of the Alliance to include countries from the former Soviet Union, starting with Ukraine. He handed the United States a list of legal guarantees necessary for Russia’s security. This is a conversation he already had at Fort Breganson with Emmanuel Macron in August 2019.

Whether or not he orders his army to attack Ukraine again, Vladimir Putin has already won points in this new border confrontation. He received confirmation that the West was not ready to fight for Ukraine, as it threatened the Kremlin with “unprecedented” economic sanctions, promised a “very high price” to Russia in the event of an attack, and also rejected any military response. Unlike Russia, which never releases its allies, the West is once again emerging, after Afghanistan, as an unreliable partner. Above all, however, the prospect of Ukraine’s integration into NATO, which is already provoking resistance within the Alliance, has moved one step further. As one diplomatic source said: “If Putin does not want to attack Ukraine, our deterrence maneuver may work. But if he decides it is in Russia’s vital interest to return it to Moscow, then nothing can be done. … “

Those warned to take note!

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