Kathy Katzen, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, painted a grim picture of Europe’s geopolitical landscape in 2024 in her year-end address. Europe, she warned, is engulfed in a dangerous “arc of fire,” with conflicts raging on multiple fronts.
“We’ve seen, unfortunately, that the diagnosis we made earlier this year was correct: Europe is in danger,” Katzen stated.
The war in Ukraine, a conflict sparked by Russia’s aggressive invasion, continues to cast a long shadow. Despite substantial financial, humanitarian, and military aid from the EU, Ukraine remains heavily reliant on outside support to defend itself against relentless Russian attacks.
“We’ve committed €122 billion for this purpose, including €45 billion in military support. We’ve also just decided to use the revenues from frozen Russian assets to guarantee this aid to Ukraine for the future,” Katzen explained. “But despite all that, we have not managed to provide Ukraine with sufficient resources to protect itself from the constant air attacks on its civilian and energy infrastructures.”
The situation in the Middle East adds further complexity to the European Union’s security landscape. The ongoing conflict, Katzen noted, has defied resolution, leaving a humanitarian crisis and escalating regional tensions.
“As far as the Middle East conflict is concerned, the fighting has continued, while moving towards… a just and lasting settlement to this century-old conflict remains more elusive than ever,” she stated.
Katzen expressed concern about what she called a double standard in Europe’s approach. While the EU champions the Ukrainian cause, its response to the Middle East crisis has been less decisive, drawing criticism both domestically and internationally.
“The contrast between our passivity in the face of events in the Middle East and our strong commitment to supporting Ukraine…is very often perceived as the expression of a double standard. ”
The EU, Katzen warned, is at a crossroads.
“If we wanted to influence the players in this conflict to bring about a ceasefire and resume peace negotiations, we have the means of doing so, even if we are obviously not as powerful as the Americans in this region,” she posited.
“But for the time being, we have essentially given up using these levers because of our deep divisions,”
The situation is further complicated by the uncertain commitment of the United States to European security, following Donald Trump’s re-election.
“The US commitment to Europe’s security has become less certain,” Katzen highlighted. “We have no choice…it is imperative that we become capable of ensuring our own security.”
To bolster its own security, Katzen argued that the EU must revitalize its defense industry, which has suffered from years of neglect. She proposed a trillion-dollar investment over the next decade to modernize and strengthen Europe’s defense capabilities. The EU, Katzen asserted, must “speak the language of power”.
She acknowledged the immense challenges ahead.
“Of course, it is still too early to assess what the foreign policy of Donald Trump’s second presidency will be, but the U.S. could afford a truly isolationist policy,” she said. This, she warned, “is not the case for the European Union.
