Towards a dry breakdown? A report from the think tank The Shift Project, made public this Tuesday, June 23, points to the risk for Europe of seeing its supply of oil dry up by 2030.
This think tank, led by the economist Mathieu Auzanneau, brings together former executives from Total. It obtained the latest data from Rystad, the Norwegian economic intelligence agency, on resources and reserves country by country and field by field in the petroleum industry.
A decline in supply
Result: more than 50% of the supply of the European Union, which imports more than 13 million barrels per day, is doomed to decline according to their report which mentions ” the winter of easy oil ”.
Russia, for example, which supplies 30% of European supplies, will see its production fall by 9% in the next ten years.
The decline is even more marked in the countries of the Gulf of Guinea (-30% for Nigeria and Angola, -45% for Gabon and Congo-Brazzaville) while production in Algeria should drop by 13% .
“A smaller cake to share”
With the coronavirus crisis, and the historic drop in oil prices, companies have also reduced their investments, especially in the area of exploration and production. What cause an even faster contraction of the offer.
At the same time, the demand for oil in Africa and Southeast Asia will increase. “The cake to be shared will be smaller, or other countries, like China, are deploying a real geostrategy of oil to secure their supplies”, observe Matthieu Auzanneau with the World .
Consumption is not falling fast enough
As the fall in consumption does not go as quickly on the Old Continent, there is a danger of sudden withdrawal of oil for Europe. “If the European Union does not succeed in implementing adequate climate policies, it risks being overtaken by the broom wagon of the peak oil!” “, warns the Shift Project.
> Read also: will the thirst for oil be quenched?
The report thus pleads for Europe to reduce its addiction to black gold. “ Consumption decreases by 0.5% per year. This pace is not fast enough: it should be around 5% annual decline ”, warns Matthieu Auzanneau.
– .
