Europe confronts the extreme right

The threat is growing: the rise of far-right nationalists in Europe, hostile to minorities, immigrants, women’s rights, climate science, and, in many cases, multiparty democracy itself. This is currently pushing leaders of moderate traditional parties to make decisions that would have seemed unlikely or impossible in the past.
In fact, almost no European country has yet to find a solution to overcome the rise of populist parties, some of which are influenced by Donald Trump and have charted a path for themselves in the style of his ideas and policies. It is true that strategies to demonize, confront, co-opt, or ignore these parties have reduced their appeal in some countries more than others. However, in some countries the cost to politicians seeking to marginalize extremist blocs was very high, and sometimes destabilizing. Then, in confronting the far right, European leaders are also wrestling with their own identities. While the consequences are a matter of calculations and guesswork, in Spain Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has just made a guess that could have very significant repercussions. Sanchez, a centre-left politician, is seeking a second term, and he and his allies within the ruling coalition failed to win enough votes to form a government in last summer’s general elections. So did his main competitor from the centre-right, allied with the far-right Vox party, whose leaders prefer to abolish laws that protect women from violence.
This result left Spain in a state of political paralysis for nearly four months. To avoid a similar electoral scenario, Sanchez chose the only available way out: formulating a constitutionally dubious deal with a marginal separatist party, Juntes, which wants independence for the Spanish region of Catalonia. There was a high price to pay for this deal, which Sanchez said he would pay. He agreed to support a mass amnesty for hundreds of politicians, officials and separatist party members who organized an illegal referendum on Catalan independence in 2017, diverting public funds in the process. When he was a candidate, Sanchez ruled out such a deal, but he eventually concluded it in exchange for obtaining the support of the separatists to maintain his position. He gained the confidence of Parliament during a vote of no confidence in his government in mid-November.

Aside from the accusation of opportunism that his opponents hurl at him, the step taken by Sanchez is not devoid of political logic. Through this partnership, Sanchez pushed the separatists to support the government and sabotage their primary cause, secession from Spain, even if they remained clinging to their old rhetoric. He also avoided holding new elections that might bring the far right to power, a scenario he calls “disaster.”
However, this may backfire. This is because at least two-thirds of Spaniards oppose a mass amnesty, as hundreds of thousands of demonstrators came out to protest the agreement. At the same time, the leaders of the Vox party, who strongly oppose localism, pledged “no restraint…no calm or tolerance” in order to stop what they called a “coup.” The danger here is that some Spaniards, angry at a broad amnesty, might throw themselves into the arms of the Vox party, which would push Spain closer to the “disaster” that Sanchez fears.
The specter of the rise of the far right has played an important role in other recent transformations across Europe. In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Schulz this month concluded what he described as a “historic” agreement to reduce social benefits for immigrants and speed up asylum procedures, which may lead to accelerating deportations, which represents a sharp turn for his coalition government, which is calculated on the left of the center and which includes the “Greens.” A party that has long advocated immigration.
This also reflected a kind of feeling of despair that comes against the backdrop of the Alternative for Germany party’s high numbers in opinion polls. The popularity of this ultra-nationalist, anti-immigration party has risen with the influx of asylum seekers. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is now the second most popular party in Germany.
In France, centrist parties appear surprised by the steady rise of Marine Le Pen, a far-right nationalist who ran and lost three presidential elections in a row. According to indications, President Emmanuel Macron is paying attention to her rising electoral numbers. During last year’s election, he said that Le Pen would spark a “civil war” by banning Muslim women from wearing the hijab in public. But this year, the French Minister of Education, a Macron ally, issued a decision banning girls from entering public schools if they wear an abaya or abaya.
This appeared to be a move aimed at appeasing and appeasing voters attracted to Le Pen because of her opposition to the advancement of Islam, but it also represented a move away from the tolerance of a centrist French government. Moreover, Le Pen still leads opinion polls among potential candidates before the next French presidential elections scheduled for 2027.
In fact, there are no magic solutions to reduce the appeal of far-right parties, especially given the significant rise in immigration across Europe, which is the main driver of these parties. The popularity of Schulz’s coalition government has declined. As for Sanchez, it seems that he obtained a new term by issuing an amnesty to the Catalan separatists, but he is facing strong, crashing waves in view of the popular reaction.
The bottom line is that the moves made by European centrists, whether motivated by expediency, survival, or wishful thinking, may contain the seeds of their demise. In their efforts to prevent the extreme right from coming to power, traditional parties in Europe have adopted an uncertain strategy for survival.

Published by special arrangement with the Washington Post Leasing and Syndication Service.