On Friday we observe a strengthening of the zloty. The US dollar has gone down by three cents and is the cheapest since mid-November 2021. You also have to pay less for Euro, Swiss Franc and British Pound.
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– We are after the interest rate hike and the conference of President (NBP) Adam Glapiński and it is absolutely clear now that we are in a cycle of interest rate increases, which de facto the market already knew, and the president clearly admitted it during the last press conference. During this conference, the NBP president also indicated that there is room for further increases in the cost of money, said Maciej Madej, analyst of Dom Maklerski TMS Brokers.
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During Tuesday’s meeting, the Monetary Policy Council decided to raise the NBP interest rates by 50 basis points. As a result, the main benchmark interest rate will be 2.25 percent from Wednesday. The governor of the National Bank of Poland and at the same time the chairman of the MPC said during the Wednesday press conference – before the announcement of preliminary inflation data in December – that taking into account the current forecasts of the development of the situation, he will urge the Council to raise interest rates one more time, by at least 50 basis points.
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– From the perspective of the PLN, this is obviously a positive piece of news, which, as we can see, is discounting and our currency is significantly appreciating this week. The upward trend line was broken in the EUR / PLN pair, which opens the way for further strengthening of our currency – he added.
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Zloty quotations – forecasts
Madej also noted that the communication of the Monetary Policy Council with the market has changed to more transparent, and the hawkish attitude visible in its message will support the zloty in the medium term. – In my opinion, the communication of the MPC with the market has also changed and its hawkish attitude is clearly visible, which will of course be a factor supporting further zloty appreciation. In the short term, due to the significant strengthening of the zloty in recent days, the risk of some rebound (weakening of the zloty – ed.) Increases, but in the medium term I assume that the zloty has a chance to strengthen further – forecasts the analyst.
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Krzysztof Pawlak from currencyomat.pl drew attention to preliminary inflation data in Friday’s comment. “The domestic currency supported by today’s reading of CPI inflation in December is the result of 8.6%, while the reading in November of 7.8% makes the zloty stronger. Such result means that the MPC will continue to raise interest rates and this is a clear argument. for buying PLN “- said Pawlak.
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The preliminary data of the Central Statistical Office shows that the prices of consumer goods and services in December 2021 increased by 8.6%. Every year.
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Euro, dollar, franc, pound – quotes
On Friday evening, you had to pay about PLN 4.54 for the euro. The European currency is the cheapest since October 2021.
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The US dollar cost PLN 4. This is the lowest level since mid-November 2021. On Friday also the euro strengthened against the dollar. According to Maciej Madej, the weakening of the US currency is the weak labor market data. In December, the non-agricultural sector in the US increased by 199,000. jobs. “The result is significantly lower than the forecast (400,000 jobs), and also devastatingly lower than the ADP report (800,000),” he indicated in the commentary.
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In the CHF / PLN pair, we are observing the lowest levels since November last year. You had to pay about 4.35 zlotys for a franc.
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The British pound cost over PLN 5.43.
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photo-source">Main photo source: Shutterstock
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